Countdown to 61 million postcards registered

I know the dust around our recent big number - :sparkler: hurray :sparkler: - hasn’t settled quite yet. But in times like this in many parts of the world, we need something exciting and entertaining to look forward to. And for some, as we all know, the traditional countdown is such a thing.

So welcome to ?? days of watching, guessing, calculating.

948,075 registrations to go till 61,000,000 official hurrays.

I start with, because, why not

04.04.2021 (Central European way to write dates, though it does not matter that very day)
20:21 UTC

a card from
FI to AT

(it’s very difficult to find country-code-4-letter-words with a meaning, not to speak about ‘realistic’ countries. I did go for Latin ‘let it be done’ this time, which fits quiet well for the better moments we all crave for)

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So @Stevyy I’m still wondering how you figure out how many cards are registered per day on average - any tips?

It’s not really rocket science

sum(dayX)-sum(dayY)
-d-i-v-i-d-e-d-
dayX-dayY

60,058,000-60,000,000
-d-i-v-i-d-e-d-
28-24
=
14500 registrations average these last days since the 60th mio.

The finer your data, the finer your calculations, of course. And if you do it over two or three whole weeks, you see the variation between the days.

PS: if you write a word with underline, it looks like this

Sorry it’s not obvious to all of us, lol - do you pick the same time every day then to compare?

Not sure what the P.S. is referring to - I didn’t underline anything in my post

Hope I did not come across condescending … I was rather trying to present it as not-scary-maths, because if a C-grade-high-school-grad like me can do it, it definitely isn’t. (C would be 3 or befriedigend (satisfying) in AT, btw)

I take the difference in hours into account, yes (I think it’s hours past / 24 (it’s late in the night for me here, and I actually should do some work :sweat_smile:))

PS: the PS was me reacting to the surprise when I used the underline as divider in the formula; apparently the layout-program in the back has a

mind on its own

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Lol, thanks for the lesson - I wish we could just add a counter - how many postcards received each day, but I guess that would take all the fun out of it - Postcrossing has some fascinating stats & it always makes me want to more - have a good night (getting close to your morning eh?)!

But we have a counter … it’s just the observers’ task to make their interpretations. :thinking: :thinking: :thinking:

far more difficult for the countdown is the dynamic of activity at all. Do people/countries stay lockdowned? Do folks run out of money? Can meetings and their many cards sent start again? …

No sleep so far, so it’s still night for me. For many others here, their working day is just starting. :yawning_face: :sleeping: :grin:

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My LEGO-postmen offer midnight from April 07 to 08.

Well, as usual, to the one whose Diviner Talent Rate will be the highest (excluding me) in this countdown, I will send a postcard with Greenskull’s Magic Mandala fulfilling your most cherished wish.
The calculation formula is very simple:

NOTES:
When the diviner retains their previous prediction in force, such predicted moments are not counted.
If the time is not named, but only the date, then UTC midday of this date should be understood.
The time is in the format HH:MM (UTC).

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Just in case I would like to clarify how the Diviner Talent Rate is calculated.

Obviously, the closer we are to the Moment of Truth (the shorter the Distance), the more reliable and accurate it can be predicted (less Error).
Therefore, I take into account for each Diviner’s Prediction NOT the Error in its pure form, but the ratio of the Error in Prediction to the Distance from which this Prediction was made.

For all the Predictions made by the Diviner, I calculate their average – I add these ratios (Errorᵢ/Distanceᵢ) and divide the resulting sum by the Total Number of Predictions N made by the Diviner.

But in this form, the more talented the Diviner, the less this value will be.
In order for the Rate to work on the principle of the more talented the Diviner, the higher the value, I take the reciprocal value from the received one. Or in other words, I flip the ratio.

The Diviner’s Talent Rate in the total number of Diviner’s Predictions encourages more accurate hits from a greater distance.
And no matter how many Predictions the Diviner made, it is important how accurate Diviner’s Predictions were, taking into account the Distances from which they were made.

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I guess we will be halfway around February 27th.

666,275 to go

583 900 postcards left to go.

502,000 postcards left to go.

At least this :point_up: prediction will come true for sure.

Hi, @manuchka ,
Have you received my Magic Mandala postcard from the previous countdown? :slight_smile:

Half-way there. Interesting dynamic, kind of strong(er) numbers in registrations. The question remains: will this trend continue?

498,872 to go

04.04.2021 (Central European way to write dates, though it does not matter that very day)
04:04 UTC

a card from
FI to AT

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yes, thank you; I sent you a PM.

My guess is March 28 at 14:24 UTC

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I am slightly adjusting my prediction regarding the passage of the 61 millionth level.

My Magic Crystal Ball says the Moment of Truth will come on 07 April in the morning at 07:00 (UTC of course).

And YES, I will send a very special postcard with Greenskull’s Magic Mandala fulfilling a most cherished wish to the one whose Diviner Talent Rate will be the highest (excluding me) in this countdown.

I highly recommend taking part in this guessing game as @greenskulls Magic Mandala is magic, indeed, and can lift your mood from deep down to very high in just a second. I have not yet spent it on a wish, though, I am keeping that one for when the time (and wish) is right.

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458 936 cards to go

My guess is 13. April, but I might adjust that later.

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420 709 cards to go

And by the way, it’s Countdown Day today :smiley:

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