Countdown to 61 million postcards registered

280 796 cards to go :smiley:

Still very vivid, registrations keep their pace. Which leads to several questions, like: will it go on like this? And: what does @greenskull know that he calculates against the visible trend :thinking: :grin: :grin:

Three quarters done,
243,548 to go

4.3.21 (I had to write it in this strange US-way; of course I mean 3rd of April)
04:03 UTC

a card from FI to AT*

(*this resp. AT-user would have to register in the middle of the night, but hey, why not? (maybe it’s me during my nightshift :star_struck:)

2 Likes

I just have good Magic Crystal Balls.
But seriously, I take into account the Catholic Easter.

2 Likes

Oh :man_shrugging: well.
I will slightly adjust my prediction for a little earlier time.
I guess that we will pass the 61 mio level on 06 April at 00:00 (UTC).
It is midnight between 05 and 06 April.

126 100 postcards and a little less than two weeks left to go.

PS Me and Stefan (@Stevyy ) have a rather large gap in predictions – about two days.
And apparently, as usual, the truth will be exactly in the middle :slight_smile:

Here we are again - the last (centi)mile.

Don’t know about orthodox RU, but here in the :laughing: Western Easter :laughing: countries, the coming holidays won’t have a big impact. Yes, there is some colourful mail on its way, and some countries don’t have mail delivered on Good Friday and/or Monday - but the effect is tiny compared to Christmas/New Year. Also, no big or small trips or vacations abroard this year for many (Europeans) - so folks might even find more time to write and register cards.
To sum up: I think you miscalculated, @greenskull. Maybe even big :smirk:

98,280 to go

02.04.2021
04:02 UTC

a card from FI to AT

1 Like

May be :man_shrugging:
Let’s see :slight_smile:

Ok.
The Moment of Truth may come on 03 of April at noon 12:00 (UTC).

I’m taking a wild guess as well!

April 1st 23:23 UTC

2 Likes

67006 cards to go :smiley:

I adjust my guess, now I´m think 61 million will be reached on 31 March.

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Let me make my guess…

1st April
20:02 UTC

DE to US

2 Likes

48 543 cards to go :smiley:

1 Like

With so many bad news out there, why not be confident and enjoy the trend of registrations …

45,637 to go

31.03.2021
20:21 UTC

a card from FI to AT

chances that the sent one is one of mine: 1:1000

1 Like

35 339 cards to go :smiley:

Just 30 000 postcards left to go.

Optimism versus mathematical reality - what is it?

24,999 to go

31.03.2021
20:21 UTC

a card from FI to AT

chances that the sent one is one of mine: 1:1400

2 Likes

Over the past few days, every day it is +14 thousand postcards. Even if Easter doesn’t work, at best it’s the evening of 01 April.
I believe that starting tomorrow, ahead of the Easter holidays, growth will noticeably decline.
I will try to assume that the Moment of Truth will come on 02 April at noon, 12:00 (UTC).

Just for fun I add a time
So my guess is:

31 March 2021, 12:02 UTC

23 698 cards to go

1 Like

Artificial Intelligence has already created the GreenSkull’s Magic Mandala.
And I confess, I do not know who will get this gift :slight_smile:

1 Like

There will be mircales, if you believe … (but probably not today; the match is as tight as it can be)

9,962 to go

01.04.2021
04:01 UTC

a card from FI to AT

Now I’ve miscalculated. Respective forgot that UTC does not know Daylight Saving Time.

4,311 to go

31.03.2021
22:01 UTC

a card from FI to AT

Chances that it’s one of mine: 1:331