280 796 cards to go
Still very vivid, registrations keep their pace. Which leads to several questions, like: will it go on like this? And: what does @greenskull know that he calculates against the visible trend
Three quarters done,
243,548 to go
4.3.21 (I had to write it in this strange US-way; of course I mean 3rd of April)
04:03 UTC
a card from FI to AT*
(*this resp. AT-user would have to register in the middle of the night, but hey, why not? (maybe it’s me during my nightshift )
Oh well.
I will slightly adjust my prediction for a little earlier time.
I guess that we will pass the 61 mio level on 06 April at 00:00 (UTC).
It is midnight between 05 and 06 April.
126 100 postcards and a little less than two weeks left to go.
PS Me and Stefan (@Stevyy ) have a rather large gap in predictions – about two days.
And apparently, as usual, the truth will be exactly in the middle
Here we are again - the last (centi)mile.
Don’t know about orthodox RU, but here in the Western Easter countries, the coming holidays won’t have a big impact. Yes, there is some colourful mail on its way, and some countries don’t have mail delivered on Good Friday and/or Monday - but the effect is tiny compared to Christmas/New Year. Also, no big or small trips or vacations abroard this year for many (Europeans) - so folks might even find more time to write and register cards.
To sum up: I think you miscalculated, @greenskull. Maybe even big
98,280 to go
02.04.2021
04:02 UTC
a card from FI to AT
Ok.
The Moment of Truth may come on 03 of April at noon 12:00 (UTC).
I’m taking a wild guess as well!
April 1st 23:23 UTC
67006 cards to go
I adjust my guess, now I´m think 61 million will be reached on 31 March.
Let me make my guess…
1st April
20:02 UTC
DE to US
48 543 cards to go
With so many bad news out there, why not be confident and enjoy the trend of registrations …
45,637 to go
31.03.2021
20:21 UTC
a card from FI to AT
chances that the sent one is one of mine: 1:1000
35 339 cards to go
Just 30 000 postcards left to go.
Optimism versus mathematical reality - what is it?
24,999 to go
31.03.2021
20:21 UTC
a card from FI to AT
chances that the sent one is one of mine: 1:1400
Over the past few days, every day it is +14 thousand postcards. Even if Easter doesn’t work, at best it’s the evening of 01 April.
I believe that starting tomorrow, ahead of the Easter holidays, growth will noticeably decline.
I will try to assume that the Moment of Truth will come on 02 April at noon, 12:00 (UTC).
Just for fun I add a time
So my guess is:
31 March 2021, 12:02 UTC
23 698 cards to go
Artificial Intelligence has already created the GreenSkull’s Magic Mandala.
And I confess, I do not know who will get this gift
There will be mircales, if you believe … (but probably not today; the match is as tight as it can be)
9,962 to go
01.04.2021
04:01 UTC
a card from FI to AT
Now I’ve miscalculated. Respective forgot that UTC does not know Daylight Saving Time.
4,311 to go
31.03.2021
22:01 UTC
a card from FI to AT
Chances that it’s one of mine: 1:331