We have already passed almost 5% of the way to the level of 67 million postcards registered.
Therefore, I am initiating a new thread dedicated to this countdown. Hope nobody minds?
For newbies:
Here we keep records of the way traveled to the level of 67 million postcards registered. And we make predictions about the moment when this will happen.
On the Postcrossing home page, you can find out how many postcards are registered in the game at the moment:
And here you can see monthly statistics on registered postcards:
Based on this, we can assume when we cross the level of 67 million.
Please make your predictions of date and time in UTC format:
Well, based on the results of this countdown, we will see whose predictions were the most accurate, taking into account the distance from which they were made, and I will send a prize postcard to the most talented diviner.
So, we have 9 predictions for now.
The distribution of predictions on the timeline looks like this.
Maximum betting density corresponds to the moment of May 18, 2022 12:36.
I will correct my prediction.
67 mio level – 23 May, 2022 at 00:00 (UTC) (midnight from 22nd to 23rd of May)
And we will go halfway (66,500,000) on April 14, 2022 in afternoon.
There are several events that have a noticeable impact on the overall trend of postcards received.
It’s Christmas + New Year. It is global.
Traffic begins to fall around December 20 and recovers only by mid-January.
Easter. The peculiarity of Easter is that these are dates that change from year to year. It is also interesting that for Catholics and Orthodox, these dates usually do not coincide.
This 2022, Catholic Easter will take place on April 17, and Orthodox Easter will take place on April 24.
The decline in traffic is not as significant as at Christmas, but it is also noticeable.
And I also noticed that a gradual decline occurs in the first decade of May. Which, apparently, is connected with the May holidays, which are popular in Russia and a number of other countries, when most people go on vacation for 1-2 weeks.
I do not know exactly how this will appear itself this year in connection with geopolitics.
Factor #2 and #3 can influence when the trend crosses the level of 67 million postcards received.
This cannot be ruled out.
One of my calculation methods gives the date May 28th (not too far from yours). But I am not yet ready to declare this as a prediction. Let’s see.
I can only more or less definitely say that we will pass halfway on April 15 in the evening. And it’s a day later than I thought before.
. June 8, 2022 17:04 UTC
needs 
and 
