Countdown to 77 Million Postcards

This is what we have at the moment.

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wellllll based on the data then, i will be submitting a new guess to
June 9th 2024 11:00 :yum:

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I’ve decided to go for 31 May 2024, 17.31 hours.

If I’ve got it right, this is one day quicker than the equivalent period last year, but a bit slower than we’ve been experiencing in the last two months. There’s a lot of public holidays coming up in Europe, and possibly elsewhere in the world, and I guess they will make a difference.

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I say 31th at 19:00

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We have 17 predictions. One of them is corrected.

Mean = 31.05.24 Fri 00:06
Median = 31.05.24 Fri 18:05
Mode = 01.06.24 Sat 05:21

My prediction points to a later date and I am of course confused a little bit by the optimism of most of the participants.

According to my model, we will go through intermediate levels as indicated below:
76 250 000 = 05.04.24 Fri 14:53
76 500 000 = 24.04.24 Wed 17:12
76 750 000 = 14.05.24 Tue 22:51
If the error is large, then most likely my model and prediction are incorrect.
Let’s see :slight_smile:

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06 June, 7:35 am, British summer time.

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I love how you pretty up your spreadsheet with flowers :hibiscus: :blush:

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Quarter of the way there!

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Maybe we should also guess when we have the 10 million laps around the world :grin:!

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I refined my mathematical model a little.
I believe we will be 1/2 of the way (76,500,000) on April 26 early in the morning (Apr 26, 06:34),
and we will be 3/4 of the way (76,750,000) on May 16 in the afternoon (May 16, 12:07).

Nevertheless, I still stand by my previous and so far only prediction:

Perhaps I will adjust my previous prediction when I see that the fact is very different from the model and the model can no longer be adapted to the actual data.

Current registration rates per day are:
6 Apr Sat = 11,300
7 Apr Sun = 8,100
8 Apr Mon = 9,000
9 Apr Tue = 13,900
10 Apr Wed = 16,200
11 Apr Thu = 15,000
12 Apr Fri = 13,600

We currently register approximately 87,200 postcards per week.
And closer to the level of 77 million, we will register a little less – 86,300 postcards per week.

746,228 cards left to go.

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I do wonder if the last week has been affected by the Easter bank holidays in much of the world. It’ll be interesting to see how the following, normal week compares. However, I do think there’s been a slowdown compared to the start of the previous million.

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There has definitely been a slow down the last 10 days but it could be just Easter - see what the next fortnight brings.

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I am sticking with my original prediction too. :grin: Although I read all the posts, I genuinely didn’t register that I had chosen a prediction close to yours! :smile:

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Oh I realised that I forgot the month. So Its 31th May 19:00 UTC

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This is what we have at the moment.

Due to the fact that I have been recording trend data twice a day for a couple of weeks now, the model describes the current trend quite well and generally agrees well with my prediction.

It should be said that from the last days of April until mid-May, a recession may be observed due to the long May holidays in a number of Eastern European countries. Plus, Orthodox Easter will be added here - this year Easter will fall on May 5th.

I admit that my second prediction may even be later than the first. But this is still an intuitive feeling.

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Current figure. :grinning:

Just having a little visit around the current prediction threads! :smile::tipping_hand_woman:t3:

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This midnight we will pass the 50% mark.
More precisely, April 25 at 01:00.

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5 weeks, 2 days and a few hours after the last million. There was a little slowdown, caused, I think, by the western Easter holidays, but things have evened out since.

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I was asleep already, thanks to morning shift, but I think it happend at 24.04 22:00 UTC

Half way there, with the expected slight northern spring slowdown. (esnoss)

497,391 to go

I’ll stick to

03.06.24
01:02 UTC

a card from DE to FI (cause the World’s heart could use some defi-brillation)

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