Countdown to 77 Million Postcards

There are no signs of recession during the May holidays yet.
Perhaps the recession will be shorter and not too severe.

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I will predict June 1st , 19:06 o’clock.

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I built two competing models of trend development - optimistic and pessimistic.
Each of them gives different dates for the intersection of the final level of 77 million and the intermediate level of 76.750 million.
With a high degree of confidence we can say that the trend will take place somewhere between them.

Depending on when the trend crosses the intermediate level of 76.750 million, it will be possible to assume more or less confidently when we will pass the final level of 77 million.

I’m sticking with my previous prediction for now, as I’m inclined to think that starting in mid-May we may see a noticeable slowdown in registration rates, which will move the Moment of Truth closer to the pessimistic estimate.

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My guess is June 3rd 19:24

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Right now it looks like the Moment of Truth will happen sometime at midnight between June 4th and 5th.

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June 11th - a birthday in our house and he (I mean the person) will be 55 so

00:55 on June 11th - GMT.

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Well I think it’s time for me to change my prediction…

June 5th at 17:05 UTC

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I think 1 of june 11:11 (UTC+1)

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With a high degree of confidence, we can say that the Moment of Truth will happen somewhere between Optimism and Pessimism.

Let my second prediction be in the middle :slight_smile:
June 03, 14:43 (UTC)

I think it’s a good idea to take the first three predictions of @Florallle , @Stevyy and @greenskull. Then find the arithmetic mean and bet on what happens :slight_smile:

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This is what we have at the moment.

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I change my prediction to June 1 at 14:49 UTC. :four_leaf_clover:

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Three quarters done, the idea of the next million begins to smell real, just like one can smell a thunderstorm sometimes.

My data shows the expected start of northern summer slowdown, but it’s slight, not radical. We’ll see what coming weeks will bring.

247,004 to go

As stubborn always, I’ll stick to

03.06.24
01:02 UTC

a card from DE to FI (cause the World’s heart could use some defi-brillation)

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Time to remove my layer of optimism and revert to my original calculated date of 30th May 19 :54

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So far, the trend is developing according to an optimistic scenario (model), which is somewhat unexpected.

I can’t say with confidence that the trend will not lose momentum in the next couple of weeks. Therefore, for now I remain with my second prediction:

In about 2 weeks the Moment of Truth will come and we will know everything for sure :slight_smile:

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Love a bit of optimism but imma gonna stick with my prediction because I’ve made my decision! :laughing:

Endlessly fascinated by @greenskull’s spreadsheets - they are like some mysterious magic because I have nooooo idea how to do this sort of thing! :joy:

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It seems very likely that the cherished event will occur around midnight from 03 to 04 June, and unlikely earlier than midnight from 02 to 03 June.

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It looks like it will be something like this.

I stand by my second prediction, it seems to me it will be an excellent hit.

We have completed 87% of the entire journey.

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I think it could be on June 2nd, 23.00 UTC

:grinning: