Countdown to 77 Million Postcards

This is where we can make our guesses as to when we think the 77 millionth postcard will be registered on Postcrossing. Please make your prediction in UTC format. Anyone is welcome to change their prediction as often as they want to. Let’s begin!

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Okay, I use the chance to start without any other input, just some data and the feeling in my gut.

984,495 to go

03.06.24
01:02 UTC

a card from DE to FI (cause the World’s heart could use some defi-brillation)

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01 June 2024 @ 22:00 for me please.

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I am providing a link to a file with the date and time of all previous millionth levels.

And my initial prediction is this:
June 06, Thu, 2024, 05:47 (UTC)

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I think pretty fast… May the 3th.

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i also agree that this number might come quickly around the corner! My first guess will be
May 8th 2024 - 09:54 UTC

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I think this will happen on the last day of spring, May 31, at 18:05.

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I estimate June 4th 2024 15:53 UTC

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I say 28th May at 14:49 UTC :four_leaf_clover:

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I guess, it will be 29th May 6:30 in the morning (UTC). :grinning:
Thanks to @RowanP for opening this topic! :+1:

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Hurray for all Freedom of Speech …
… but with all due respect, I think we hadn’t had a million under 60 days for years. So start of May really is a very very veeeeeeerrrrryyy optimistic guess.

But hey, it’s equinox, and here in the Northern Hemisphere there’s more daylight than nightdarkness again for the next weeks, so why not dream the impossible dream

:rose: :hibiscus: :sunflower: :sunflower: :sunflower: :hibiscus: :rose: :watermelon: :watermelon: :watermelon: :sunny: :sunny: :sunny: :rainbow: :sunny:

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:+1:
With a 99.9999% probability, everything will happen somewhere between June 01 and June 10.
Above I provided a link to a file with the history of all previous levels completing.

Of course, if the founders of Postcrossing suddenly change the rules of the game one day, doubling the standard slot size, passing the 77 million level may occur a month earlier.

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My choice is June 7th, it’s my friend’s birthday. Let’s say at 8.56am UTC.

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Well, I don’t know about statistics, but I believe in May, 31st, about 12 noon. :sunny: :star: :full_moon:

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My prediction: June 5th, 12:34 AM UTC

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I’ll go for 30th May.21:44 UTC

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I think since we’ve been registering over 100,000 postcards per week for a while now, even when everyone thought there would some slow downs at times, it just didn’t happen.

With that thought in mind, my prediction is:

May 24th @ 12:05 UTC

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My jiggery pokery is saying 30th May but my heart says a couple of days before…
So I’m going for 28.05.2024 19:00
Good luck everyone

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I’m seeing extraordinary optimism among the countdown participants :slight_smile:

But my assessments are more restrained. They are based on correlation studies.
From my point of view the chances that the Moment of Truth will occur in the date interval from June 1 to June 10 are as follows:

I wonder what bet @Florallle (Louise) will make?

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Yes, sorry. I’ve not had time to think about it. Mind you, I started off on the optimistic side last time… and ended up 3 days too late, so I don’t know how much previous years’ records are going to help this time. But I’ll let you know soon.

4 Likes