I leave my initial prediction standing:
15 March 2023, 18:01 UTC
I admit that the cherished moment may come at the junction of two dates on March 14 and 15. But I do not want to correct for half a day.
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My second prediction is
March 14th, 16:00 (UTC).
This is about 1 day earlier than I thought on the first try.
March 14th is Albert Einsteinās birthday, by the way.
As a reminder, in this Countdown, I will be determining the most talented diviner by their best result (angular deviation) of all their attempts, and not by average.
Therefore, we can safely make adjustments. This approach forgives mistakes.
So, it is 387,880 postcards left to go.
And I guess that a little more than 27 days are left until the cherished moment.
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But somehow itās cooler to be near the right result on the first attempt - and if notā¦ so what? 
So my hope is, that due to the likely post strike in Germany some postcards will be registered delayed (or also some people draw less adresses due to that) - and allleads to my first prediction of 17 March being the right one 
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And Pi 
day 3/14
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I think it will be March 3rd. 16:00
Maybe this time Iām closer. 
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Hereās what we have so far with updated predictions from some participants.
There are 24 predictions in total.
Average (Mean) = March 14 Tue 01:03
Median = March 14 Tue 17:30
Mode = March 14 Tue 08:05
If your prediction is very different from these values, then it might make sense to recalculate your prediction and make a new, more accurate prediction.
But, of course, this is entirely up to you 
We have completed 63.5% of the way.
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This is a picture of what we have at the moment.
The light blue line is a mathematical trend model based on observed trend values.
Dark blue diamonds at the level of 71000000 are the forecasts of all participants.
I highlighted some of them with two red ellipses - before March 05 and after March 23. It is unlikely that the trend will change enough for these predictions to come true.
I highlighted one more part with a green ellipse - from March 05 to March 23. These are predictions that may well play out.
I hope this visualization allows us to better understand the development of the trend, and perhaps even correct the predictions for some of us.
Dear friends,
Would you like to correct your predictions?
@danay4 (19 Feb 23 21:00)
@manuchka (24 Feb 23 22:34)
@Hobbyhistoriker (03 Mar 23 16:00)
@Telopea (26 Mar 23 14:20)
@Jarana (30 Mar 23 12:00)
@ChocCrossie (01 Apr 23 13:17)
As an idea, but in any case itās up to you
My mathematical model is not necessarily 100% reliable may well be wrong.
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Iām sure, youāre right. But I love my prediction. Addicted to my prediction, so to speak ā¦ 
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I was wrong last time. But I stand by my statement. At some point I have to be right. Or? 
@greenskull
I think your spreadsheet is amazing. I am professionally occupied with such evaluations. You only do that if youāre passionate about what youāre doing. Thanks for that.
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Thank you
Look, the 3rd diamond from the left at 71 million level is your prediction.
For it to play, it is necessary that the trend deviate in accordance with the light blue dotted curve. This does not seem entirely plausible.
The Postcrossing trend never behaves like this. Itās too steep a turn
But, of course, nothing can be ruled out
I am just giving a hint
Yes, you are right, I have a passion for predictive analysis and forecasting.
This is my job and I really like it. But beyond that, I never miss an opportunity to analyze a sample of the dataset and extrapolate the trend some time ahead
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I canāt create such analyzes myself, but I can read them. Your statement is clear. I will adjust my assessment.
Thank you greenskull! 
03/16/2023 - 18:00
My gut feeling says itās true this time. 
My head isnāt so sure about that. 
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My Magic Crystal Ball tells me that the cherished moment will most likely occur between March 12, 04:00 and March 17, 04:00 (UTC).
Therefore, I leave my second prediction (March 14, 16:00) in force for the time being.
68.23% of the way already completed.
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March 16 , 7.17 am
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I dare to assume that with a probability of 90% the trend will develop in the tube between the light blue dotted lines.
And most likely, the moment of passing the level of 71 million will happen in the time interval between March 13, 14:50 and March 16, 11:40.
Namely, March 14, 18:40 (-1.2/+1.7) days.
So, I leave my previous forecast in force, it is quite in line with these considerations.
Of course, my model reflects only my personal vision of the scenario and may well be wrong.
I apologize for the intrusiveness of my comments. But studying the Postcrossing trend is very exciting for me
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And I always enjoy your analyses.
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We appreciate your input @greenskull
My head tells me you your correct
My heart thinks we are being over optimisticā¦it will be a few days later.
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I guess March 7, 11:15
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Iām excited as always. Please keep it up!
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Taking into account 26 predictions, some of which were updated by the participants, we have at the moment:
Average (Mean) = March 14 Tue 09:09
Median = March 15 Wed 03:47
Mode = March 15 Wed 19:36
If we assume that the cherished Moment of Truth will come in accordance with the Average (Mean) = March 14 Tue 09:09) indicated above, then the best soothsayers in this countdown will be:
| Participant of Countdown | Smallest Angular Deviation Theta, (Ā°) |
|---|---|
| @jabuka | 0,30 |
| @fiwipa | 0,35 |
| @xxxxyyyyzzzz | 0,52 |
| @Silpa | 0,59 |
| @greenskull | 0,60 |
| @Florallle | 0,97 |
| @VanCity95 | 1,31 |
| @_zahra_ | 1,94 |
| @Herbstsommerwind | 2,72 |
| @reiselustig | 2,83 |
| @Shalottslady | 3,17 |
| @nnniiina | 3,63 |
| @tesc | 4,29 |
| @GrauBunt | 4,37 |
| @jettyb | 5,30 |
| @thibcabe | 5,30 |
| @Captain-Colin | 5,81 |
| @Stevyy | 5,84 |
| @Hobbyhistoriker | 5,87 |
| @HM | 6,38 |
| @Jarana | 13,60 |
| @manuchka | 14,48 |
| @ChocCrossie | 15,65 |
| @Telopea | 17,67 |
| @danay4 | 18,47 |
| @IrinaPiccolina | 21,25 |
For each participant, I take their best prediction if there were more than one bet.
And I calculate the angular deviation of the prediction, that is, the ratio of the error to the distance from which the prediction was made.
Let me just say that if the Angular Deviation Theta is 1Ā°, itās like shooting from 50 meters to miss only 87 cm.
Error = Tangent (Theta) * Distance.
If you wish, you can always make a new clarifying prediction.
If it is more accurate, then I will take it into account
We have covered approximately 75.8% of the entire journey.
There are approximately 16.77 days left until the cherished moment and about 241,781 postcards.
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I remember that once you made these calculations and took in account how often people chnged their predictionā¦ I wonder how the rates would look like in that case? I know you said before you will not do it like that this time - but I must admit, I am curious if there would be a significant diference in the list
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