Oh, I see. Doesn’t look like I’m the best in this guessing
But then I take a second shoot: It will be on April 1st, at 1.17 pm.
Oh, I see. Doesn’t look like I’m the best in this guessing
But then I take a second shoot: It will be on April 1st, at 1.17 pm.
I’m going for 13 March at 18:49 UTC
(My maths is very simple, but I wasn’t weeks out last time so hoping for a long range hit this time)
Nice shot But still far from the epicenter of bets.
Just as an idea. Why wouldn’t you try to bet on:
Average (Mean) = 17 March 2023 Fri 21:32
or
Median = 15 March 2023 Wed 12:34
or
Mode = 14 March 2023 Tue 12:20
?
This does not give a 100% hit guarantee, but it can significantly increase the chances of hitting close to the bullseye of the target.
Just check the Average (Mean), Median and Mode of the previous Countdown 70 mio and compare them with the fact of Moment of Truth (January 04, 23:37).
In no way am I imposing anything, I’m just curious
Just because many place their bets on a certain horse, it still does not mean that this one will win the race… I stick with my first guess. Need to practice my intuition (and confirm my maths).
Ok Let’s see.
I’m going for 16 March at 13:45 UTC
With @ChocCrossie’s adjustments and two new bets (@xxxxyyyyzzzz and @_zahra_), our collective unconscious gives us the following averages:
Average (Mean) = 14/03/23 Tue 09:53
Meadian = 15/03/23 Wed 12:34
Mode = 14/03/23 Tue 14:28
Sorry for offtopic.
I thought that, in fact, Voyager, which launched 45 years ago and carried into deep space a record of greetings in all languages of the Earth, is a postcard for brothers in mind. This is a kind of Postcrossing but on a cosmic scale.
I would say it will be 15th March 18:00 UTC
We’re already more than a quarter of the way through! That’s happened remarkably quickly. There seems to have been none of the predicted slowdown.
I’m going to have to revise my forecast to 17th March 19.30 hrs
Two hours later than me - so will both keep our fingers crossed for that date
Taking into account the updates of predictions:
Average (Mean) = 13.03.23 Mon 23:25
Median = 15.03.23 Wed 15:17
Mode = 14.03.23 Tue 10:48
But… something tells me that the cherished event will happen a few days earlier.
For now, I will not correct my prediction, I will observe further.
Certainly if we carry on sending and registering at this rate, it will be earlier.
I was interested to read in the annual stats blog post that, last year, the day with the most number of registrations was 12th January. I wonder if it was around about the same time this year.
My current maths says 11th March. But I’m not planning on correcting my prediction either, at the moment.
My guess is March 13th at 22:32
March 14 at 14h
I am guessing March 26. at 14.20h
@Floralle is right, we are half-way there already. Quiet soon, I say, looks like the post-new-year-slowdown is kind of … slow
I fear my first guess was too pessimistic, I’ll stick with it though, and be it for the astronomical date only. (The day/night is the same day/night lenght for (almost) all of us Earthlings)
481,411 to go
21st of March, 2023 - Equinox
03:21 UTC
a card from MA to rCH