Sometimes people are quite stubborn to my surprise
The closer we are to the Moment of Truth, the stronger the influence of the error, as I consider the ratio of error to distance. Accordingly, the smaller the distance (in the denominator), the smaller the error should be. And, if the participant is really good at counting or thinking about their bet, then their result will improve.
Previously, I calculated the average value of these ratios for all bets of the participant. But this is a very harsh approach, it is good in an environment of trained analysts. It does not forgive mistakes. So now I just choose the best ratio. This is a less strict approach. One good turn can fix the situation. But, of course, you need to think carefully about this turn.
The more predictions a participant makes, the more objectively this criterion reveals really talented predictors.
For example, I noticed a long time ago that @Florallle makes amazing predictions. At least she is always in the top five. I also love the way @jabuka (previously @catinboots) plays. I am following @Stevyy with great interest. But in fact, each participant has their own handwriting in decision-making.
But I can definitely say that the number of participants in the countdown threads is growing.
People are fascinated by the opportunity to catch luck by the tail
If only surprising stubbornness would exist in this game alone. Here it costs a (precious) card - in other areas it costs lives after lives after lives.
I would be happy to predict when all this horror will end, but such things are difficult to analyze.
I hope that soon.
What is it?
Stefan, do you already have an idea for 72 million?
I have got one. And I can’t wait to share it
It would be possible, of course, to have two or three threads with countdowns at the same time, although of course this is some departure from the established rules.
And it can break the usual sequence. So I will wait patiently
The beauty is that the intervals between millionth milestones are not constant. They currently swing between 64 and 78 days. And during the covid period, there was once even 99 days. And it is quite difficult to catch reliably the next one in advance.
⚠️ The LifeHack for those who are too lazy to collect data and analyze trends :) ⚠️
The easiest, but not flexible, way to predict the next milestone is to simply add 76 days to the date of the last one.
This LifeHack will work great up to the level of 77 million.
If you use this LifeHack immediately after completing the last millionth level, then the angular deviation of your prediction will always be less than 7° and the error will not exceed 5-6 days guaranteed.
Now and in the coming days, we will receive an average of 14,200 registrations per day.
Given that we have 190,000 registrations left, that’s about 13.38 days in days.
A rough calculation gives 14 March 21:00.
As an idea for those who don’t want to puzzle over my pictures
I have now tried again with mathematics. Based on the evaluation of greenskull, I will change my prediction again.
March 14 5:32 pm @Greenskull Thank you for your calculations
Average = March 14, Tue 04:42
Median = March 14, Tue 19:52
Mode = March 14, Tue 22:09
If we accept that the Moment of Truth is precisely the median of all our predictions (and it coincides with my own forecast), then the angular deviations of the participants will be as follows:
PS Please perceive my evaluations as hints, but nothing more.
Since the future is uncertain. I can only calculate it with some degree of reliability using all sorts of mathematical tricks. But any forecast is always only a hypothesis.
PPS
I apologize for being late.
Happy Birthday, @paulo!
My best wishes to you!
So, but what if German post is going to strike forever from Friday on?
Would your prediction still be correct or would it cause a huge effect? (Maybe the 71 would occurr much faster, because everybody else is taking the chance to not send cards to Germany and send much more Sorry, just a little joke about my country.)
Don’t worry we love sending cards to Germany. Postcrossers there are pleasant/dont make too many demands on their profiles & cards are normally fairly fast so we get to send another quicker. I had repeat countries on for a while to get my numbers up until the world changed…
that soon.
Sorry, just a little joke about my country.)
changed…