Looks like I’m not a good fortune-teller 
BUT - what if, against all other predictions, finally it will be June, 13th?! 
… so I’ll stay with it 
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Time will tell 
Some beautiful graphs with explanations. Hope it will be interesting.
This is a trend deviation graph.
I want to please everyone.
It seems that on April 20 (x=6137), the rebound and a compensatory trend reversal began.
Blue is a trend fact.
Light blue is a tube of normal trend volatility.
We see that the intensive trend distortion began around April 05 (x=6122). It is one and half week before Easter (!). And the fall even went beyond Easter for a couple of days.
Green is the rebound and reversal area.
Let’s see how many days it will take to catch up and return to the tube of the trend.
And some inspirational music from my playlist, if you don’t mind.
Darkest night before dawn. I believe in the best.
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We see that in a week the Easter gap has already closed by a third.
If it goes on like this, we will be fully back to the trend by the beginning of the second week of May (x=6153 is May 06).
Therefore, I will leave my previous prediction in force.
Well, maybe Stefan is right about 25.05.2022
I can definitely say that we will pass the 67 million level somewhere between Stefan’s prediction and mine.
For now, I will observe a little more, and then I will correct my prediction.
My third try is May 24, 17:30 UTC.
We are already about 70% of the way.
294,400 postcards left to go.
If we assume that the Moment of Truth will come exactly in the middle between Stefan’s last prediction and this my prediction, then the Diviners Talent Rates will be like this:
@reiselustig 87,06
@anon141542 60,77
@Stevyy 42,58
@Aguaroble 39,36
@greenskull 24,30
@Florallle 17,76
@Anibaby 16,52
@Vozmojnosti_Iriski 11,98
@thibcabe 11,15
@nnniiina 8,79
@Jarana 7,80
@bom_dia 6,14
@shootingstar7 4,88
@ChocCrossie 3,70
How it will actually turn out, I don’t know. This is just a preliminary estimate.
Thanks a lot for what you are doing!
If it’s still possible to change, I would say May 24, 23:30 UTC 
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Wow I am surprised… still atthe top end I am very curious how near my prediction will be to the real “moment of truth”
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This is a smart move
And your Diviner Talent Rate has doubled. Of course, provided that the Moment of Ttruth comes exactly in the middle between Stefan’s last prediction and mine.
… But when the Moment of Truth will come is not known exactly
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I love this description! 
Sadly, we’re not over this distortion yet, and I’m sure it will affect the more optimistic predictions. Between people sending a lot less postcards (lots of concerns on everyone’s mind, which is understandable given the state of the world) and mail to China being delayed because of the strict lockdowns there, this next million is going to be a bit of an outlier.
Good luck, everyone!
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I guess we’ll go through the level 67 mio somewhere between last my bet (24.05.2022 at 17:30 UTC) and last Stefan’s bet (25.05.2022 at 05:25 UTC).
But there may be surprises, yes
I hope that there will be a small bounce shortly after May 9-12, which will accelerate the 67 million level.
Catching a black cat in a dark room is an unusually exciting experience, don’t you agree?
A slowdown in registrations during Northern late Spring/Summertime happens every year, that’s kind of normal. Sadly, there are some additional unnormal factors at work at the moment: heatwave, pandemic, inflation, relocation of material and social ressources, and above all killers, rapists and thieves with their supporting fanbase in palace and ordinary domes.
There goes the illusion that 2020 resp. 2021 were difficult.
Three quarters done.
239,064 to go
25.05.2022
20:22 UTC
a card from PA to IN
“Yesterday we obeyed kings and bent our necks before emperors. But today we kneel only to truth, follow only beauty, and obey only love.” Kahlil Gibran
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My 4th iteration is May 24, 2022 at 23:50 (UTC).
If we accept that the Moment of Truth will come in accordance with my 4th prediction, then the Diviners Talent Rates will be like this:
@reiselustig 88,78
@Aguaroble 79,03
@anon141542 59,98
@Stevyy 32,36
@greenskull 32,10
@Florallle 17,80
@Anibaby 16,46
@Vozmojnosti_Iriski 11,95
@thibcabe 11,12
@nnniiina 8,77
@Jarana 7,82
@bom_dia 6,13
@shootingstar7 4,88
@ChocCrossie 3,71
But of course my Magic Crystal Ball can be wrong
Everyone can make a new prediction if they wish. This can improve the overall score.
Please don’t take this too seriously as it’s just a game
125,500 postcards left to go and about ~9.5 days.
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Registrations are slow still. Guess it will stay that way, with all the hearts, bones and connections broken.
80,843 to go
25.05.2022
20:22 UTC
a card from PA to IN
Above all, don’t lie to yourself. The man who lies to himself and listens to his own lie comes to a point that he cannot distinguish the truth within him, or around him, and so loses all respect for himself and for others. And having no respect he ceases to love.”
Fyodor Dostoevsky
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My 5th iteration is 25 May, 2022 at 08:30 (UTC).
Unfortunately, the rebound ran out of energy rather quickly and I don’t see new reasons for it during the week.
If we accept that the Moment of Truth will come in accordance with my last prediction, then the first three places in the Diviners ranking will be as follows:
@reiselustig 160,06
@Aguaroble 85,25
@anon141542 46,42
If we accept that the Moment of Truth will come in accordance with Stefan’s last prediction, then the first three places in the Diviners ranking will be as follows:
@reiselustig 1851,81
@Aguaroble 95,35
@Stevyy 43,64
But of course, if participants make new predictions taking into account the development of the trend, or new snipers take part in the countdown, or suddenly there is a strong acceleration or deceleration in postcrossing, then everything will be completely different
75,120 poscards left to go and about ~6… 6.5 days.
In that case, my prediction for that date is looking fairly good! It was just two hours after your most recent prediction.
Things have really slowed down this month. I’ve only had 10 of my postcards registered this month. With 25 travelling, that’s really slow.
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Here I have shown everything on the graph.
The blue line is a fact.
The light blue dotted line is my estimated prediction.
The red dots are the last (or only) predictions of the most accurate participants.
But only time will tell how it will really be. Less than a week left to go
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Yes you are right. Your second prediction looks very accurate (May 25 10:25 am).
And if you had it only one, then it was probably the best shot of all, without a doubt.
When calculating the rating, I take into account all the attempts of the participant, and if some of their shots were not quite accurate, then this reduces the overall score.
You made two predictions, the first on (May 17 17:05) which you made about 73 days before the supposed Moment of Truth, and the second prediction on (May 25 10:25) which you made about 37 days before the supposed Moment of Truth.
My situation is very similar – I made 5 predictions and the early ones were not quite accurate. Therefore, my Diviner Talent Rate, like yours, is slightly above the middle
But if we display your second attempt on the chart, then it is certainly brilliant
But of course, we do not yet know exactly the Moment of Truth, but only assume it. Perhaps it will shift sooner or later, and then, of course, the picture will change.
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I just came across this topic and it seems very close to 67m now. I won’t make a prediction because that feels like cheating, but good luck everyone!
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Well I am now reaaaallly curious when the moment of truth will be! I am quite happy with my first “shot”
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