May 16th 18.30 UTC
1 Like
On my son’s 4th birthday and at the time he was born converted to UTC 
. June 8, 2022 17:04 UTC
1 Like
So, we have 9 predictions for now.
The distribution of predictions on the timeline looks like this.
Maximum betting density corresponds to the moment of May 18, 2022 12:36.
It’s just a curious calculation.
The Collective Unconscious may well be delusional.
1 Like
May 20th 20.00 UTC 
1 Like
The 
needs 
and 
890,111 to go
22.05.22
05:22 UTC
a card from FR via IE to DE
3 Likes
I will correct my prediction.
67 mio level – 23 May, 2022 at 00:00 (UTC) (midnight from 22nd to 23rd of May)
And we will go halfway (66,500,000) on April 14, 2022 in afternoon.
19th May, pm UTC
1 Like
19th May
02:20 UTC
AT to CH
1 Like
There are several events that have a noticeable impact on the overall trend of postcards received.
-
It’s Christmas + New Year. It is global.
Traffic begins to fall around December 20 and recovers only by mid-January. -
Easter. The peculiarity of Easter is that these are dates that change from year to year. It is also interesting that for Catholics and Orthodox, these dates usually do not coincide.
This 2022, Catholic Easter will take place on April 17, and Orthodox Easter will take place on April 24.
The decline in traffic is not as significant as at Christmas, but it is also noticeable. -
And I also noticed that a gradual decline occurs in the first decade of May. Which, apparently, is connected with the May holidays, which are popular in Russia and a number of other countries, when most people go on vacation for 1-2 weeks.
I do not know exactly how this will appear itself this year in connection with geopolitics.
Factor #2 and #3 can influence when the trend crosses the level of 67 million postcards received.
760213 cards to go, so in the next few days the one quarter milestone will pass.
My prediction for the 67 miillion… mhm … 1 June 2022
1 Like
This cannot be ruled out.
One of my calculation methods gives the date May 28th (not too far from yours). But I am not yet ready to declare this as a prediction. Let’s see.
I can only more or less definitely say that we will pass halfway on April 15 in the evening. And it’s a day later than I thought before.
691 741 cards to go 
Approximately 36% of the way has already been completed.
I’m sticking with my last prediction for now:
67 mio – 23 May, 2022 at 00:00 (UTC) (midnight from 22nd to 23rd of May)
And we’ll cross half way on April 15, 2022 at 00:00 (midnight from 14 to 15 of April) I guess.
Assuming that the fact exactly matches my forecast (which is not at all guaranteed), then the preliminary rating of the diviners will look like this:
@anon141542 90,09
@Stevyy 85,50
@greenskull 35,29
@Anibaby 30,68
@reiselustig 25,08
@Aguaroble 18,47
@Vozmojnosti_Iriski 18,18
@thibcabe 16,29
@Florallle 13,33
@nnniiina 11,26
@bom_dia 7,17
@Jarana 5,97
@shootingstar7 4,18
@ChocCrossie 3,27
I’ll make a reservation right away that I can be deeply mistaken in my forecasts, therefore this assessment is hypothetical.
4 Likes
I always make the list 
Thank you @greenskull for the details.
As Stevyy and I have such higher numbers next to our names (85, 90, respectively) compared to the majority of you, is that a good thing or not?
It is very good 
But nothing can be 100% sure.
My first prediction (May 19, 2022 at 00:00 UTC) was somewhat impulsive and not well thought out.
The second prediction (May 23, 2022 at 00:00 UTC) is based on a more thorough and deeper analysis. It is based on a hypothesis that is increasingly confirmed by the current trend.
I like Stefan’s predictions, as he has been participating in these countdowns for a long time. And his predictions often come true well. It has happened many times that the fact has fallen somewhere between Stefan’s prediction and mine.
And in this case, my second prediction (May 23, 2022 at 00:00 UTC) and Stefan’s first (and so far only) prediction (May 22 at 05:22 UTC) roughly coincide. It can be assumed that the fact will not be too far from the average point near both of us, although of course this is not guaranteed.
I have detailed the rating calculation method here.
And I made this preliminary calculation of ratings on the assumption that the fact will coincide with my second prediction.
My rating is greatly inferior to yours due to my first frivolous prediction, since all attempts are taken into account in the calculation.
But given the fact that game activity is affected by many factors, including covid, geopolitical events, local holidays, changes in mail forwarding prices in a certain country, etc., it is quite difficult to accurately predict when the next level will be completed.
At least it’s hard to predict from a long distance (let’s say 2.5 months), but a little easier as you get closer to the level passing.
The rating calculation method takes into account both the prediction error and the distance from which the prediction was made. And also all attempts for each countdown participant are taken into account.
PS I forgot to say that I usually send a prize postcard with a Magic Mandala that grants one wish to the diviner whose rating is the highest soon after level reaching
1 Like
A question, the answer to which is not at all obvious.
Will Postcrossing overcome the level of 70 million registered postcards before the end of this 2022?
I see serious intrigue in this.
Try to guess pls
2 Likes
Thank you @greenskull for your reply, it made for some interesting reading. I will admit that I didn’t fully understand everything but I did get the basis of it. My mind just doesn’t work that way.
With regards to the passing of 70,000,000 this year, my initial thought is NO and we will pass it somewhere around 28th Jan to 2nd Feb 2023. That answer is based on absolutely nothing but my gut feeling.
1 Like
I think that we will pass halfway (66,500,000) on April 15 at about noon.
As soon as we pass halfway, I will correct my prediction for the level of 67 million. I guess I will have to add 1-2 days to my previous forecast
Half-way there. Registrations are down a bit. I guess folks in usually active countries have different things in mind - like surviving a brutal invasion, or ignoring the wrong direction their ‘president’ is leading them.
Sometimes there’s truth in old cliches. There can be no real peace without justice. And without resistance there will be no justice.
Arundhati Roy
489,620 to go
25.05.2022
05:25 UTC
a card from PA to IN
2 Likes