In 2020, Catholic Easter was celebrated on April 12, and Orthodox Easter was celebrated on April 19.
Perhaps due to the closeness of the dates last year, there was a noticeable cumulative effect. The trend of received postcards deviated by about +3 days. This is roughly the deviation that I tried to catch in the previous countdown.
This year 2021, Catholic Easter fell on April 4, and Orthodox Easter will only be on May 2.
As we have noticed, Catholic Easter has not influenced the trend. The influence of Orthodox Easter will be difficult to assess, since it will come on the May holidays, which traditionally take place in Russia and the CIS countries from May 01 until May 10, when most Russians leave for their summer cottages (dachas) and the trend of the postcards received will definitely strongly deviate towards slowing down.
If we were expecting the passage of the 62 million level around these dates, then perhaps it would make sense to somehow take this into account. But since the passage of this level will be at least one month later, by that time any deviations will be compensated by delayed postcards sendings.
Nevertheless, the fact of the difference of 9 days in our first forecasts with Stefan is curious. And this difference is unusually large.