Countdown to 62 million cards registered

Even with some headlines and situations feeling like ‘Groundhog Day’ (love this movie, btw), time and cards are flyin’. So let’s look forward to our next 62nd millionth milestone (is it a milemilestone?).

It’s hard to guess if the recent trend goes on - but it’s hard to guess always. So whoever wants to dare, just give it a try.

903,602 to go

06.06.2021
20:21 UTC

a card from FI to NO*

fino, Portuguese for fine. Because that’s how our days and cards should be

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Did you count for all the upcoming holidays where people maybe have more time to write cards, but postal services go slower? :wink:

I go for:
5 June
07h08 UTC

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888 069 to go

My guess is for 27 May, is this a risky early date?

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I claim that beside Western Christmas/Western New Years/Eastern Christmas, holidays don’t have a major impact. Maybe not even Chinese New Year, as while there are many CN- and TW-users, it’s still only a fraction of all postcrossers. (While the time around the Christmasses includes users of DE and RU and NL and US and PL and FI …).
Traditionally, summer is a distraction with slower registrations as a result, with students working and others traveling, but that’s hard to tell in these present pand**** times.

Well, in the end, all we can do is wait and see. And guess. And send, of course.

885,908 to go

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15 June, 12:00 (UTC)

@Stevyy, I’m still waiting for you to win my Magic Mandala :slight_smile:

In 2020, Catholic Easter was celebrated on April 12, and Orthodox Easter was celebrated on April 19.
Perhaps due to the closeness of the dates last year, there was a noticeable cumulative effect. The trend of received postcards deviated by about +3 days. This is roughly the deviation that I tried to catch in the previous countdown.

This year 2021, Catholic Easter fell on April 4, and Orthodox Easter will only be on May 2.
As we have noticed, Catholic Easter has not influenced the trend. The influence of Orthodox Easter will be difficult to assess, since it will come on the May holidays, which traditionally take place in Russia and the CIS countries from May 01 until May 10, when most Russians leave for their summer cottages (dachas) and the trend of the postcards received will definitely strongly deviate towards slowing down.

If we were expecting the passage of the 62 million level around these dates, then perhaps it would make sense to somehow take this into account. But since the passage of this level will be at least one month later, by that time any deviations will be compensated by delayed postcards sendings.

Nevertheless, the fact of the difference of 9 days in our first forecasts with Stefan is curious. And this difference is unusually large.

795 248 to go

We have started a new 62 mio countdown and I want to remind you, friends, that the one whose predictions will be the most accurate on average and taking into account the distances will get a special prize from me – a postcard with the GreenSkull’s Magic Mandala that fulfills a wish and with many beautiful stamps.

I have detailed the methodology for calculating the Diviner’s Talent Rate here.

Anyone can win. It doesn’t matter how many predictions you made and when you started. It is only important that your predictions are as close as possible to the real Moment of Truth (the time of 62 mio crossing) as it approaches.

Good luck everyone!
It will be a lot of fun if Manuela (@manuchka ) becomes the most accurate this time too :slight_smile:

And now 743 340 postcards left to go.
And I keep my last prediction in force – 15 June, 12:00 (UTC).

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For your information, friends, there are currently about 13,300 postcards registered daily.
But this value is not constant and changes smoothly depending on various seasonal factors, such as month of the year, day of the week and various holidays.
This value is also influenced by various non-seasonal social phenomena. For example, on the same days a year ago, due to the coronavirus pandemic, only about 8,800 postcards were registered daily.
And the lowest postcard registration rate fell on the days from 10 to 14 April last year, when only 5,500 postcards were registered daily.

It is rather difficult to predict exactly the moment of passing the curve of the postcards received next million levels, but it is fascinating.

On the main Postcrossin page in the section Postcrossing in numbers you can always see the total number of postcards received at the moment.
And also monthly statistics are available here.

In principle, this data is enough to build your own forecasting system and make predictions.

Almost halfway

561 541 cards to go

My Tipp: 16.05.2021 21.00 UTC

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Here in Moscow post offices don’t work only on the 1st and 9 th of May. All the rest days the will be working in spite of 10-day holidays. The same with people: some will be working shifts as usual, most of offices will be working between the 4th and 7th of May.

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And the 9th of May 2021 is a Sunday anyway. Do Russian post offices usually work on Sundays?

In Moscow - yes! Though I am not sure for the rest of the country. They began working on Sundays during the pandemic, as far as I know - to avoid overcrowding. At least the post office nearby works 7 days a week for sure. Usual working hours 8-20 during week days, without lunch break.

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That’s interesting! Does the Russian Post also deliver mail on Sundays?

No. But they collect mail from boxes on Sunday. At least in Moscow

My prediction is 09 June 2021 let’s say 12:00 (UTC).

And yes, I found an error due to which my forecast for 61 million and the previous prediction for 62 million flew away.
Now everything should be finely accurate :slight_smile:

PS And the difference with Stefan (@Stevyy ) is a little less than 3 days. Which looks quite plausible.

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Maybe a bit more off topic about Russian post: as it happens not only the main post office in Moscow works 24/7 but even some ordinary offices as well! I didn’t know about it.

One more refinement of the prediction.
The Moment of Truth will come on 04 June at 18:30 (UTC).
Almost half way left (=505 090 postcards).

My prediction is May, 25

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