I keep my last prediction valid 24 January 14:37, but I will update it a little later.
Dear Manuela (@manuchka ), considering the distance from which you made your only bet and the possible error, I would not be too worried about that.
But in any case, do as you see fit
Dear Shikai (@SkyHound ), If you indicate the date and time (UTC), I will include your prediction in my calculation of the Most Talented Diviner in this countdown
Let me remind that to the Most Talented Diviner, I will send my personal prize ā a postcard with GreenSkullās Magic Mandala fulfilling a wish.
I have outlined the calculation methodology above. It takes into account all the predictions and the distances from which they were made.
And of course, be sure to participate in the Official lottery from the founders of Postcrossing, where it is possible to adjust your prediction almost until the very last moment. And where it is important to be among the 7 most accurate bets at least until the level of 59,999,000 is passed.
I have at least 4 cards that should have arrived already (one expired) and I wonder if any of the recipients are trying to time it so that they register the 60 millionth card
Oh no, you suddenly make me feel the same.
I have 3 cards that should have arrived already and I suspect one of them are trying to register the 60 millionth card She logs in multiple times a day but havenāt register anything in 1 week. I also log in multiple times a day but I donāt have any card to be registered.
An average Saturday sees ~12,000 registrations. While European afternoon/evening is the most busy time, it does not bring the 75% you need for your guess of today.
50% probably, or maybe 60%, being generous.
But itās fun to guess, no matter the maths gg
I wouldnāt rule out that there are some few users doing that. I am rarely around when we are really really close, so I donāt know what I personally would do. Waiting two hours - why not
Right now.
379 participants in the Official Lottery still believe that the Moment of Truth will come today, January 23rd.
547 participants are betting on tomorrow, January 24th.
And 270 participants are in no hurry, January 25th.
The beauty of the Official Lottery is that the closer the Moment of Truth is, the more accurately you can predict it. But at the same time, the fewer free slots remain and you may just not find the right one.
Thus, you need to somehow manage to be more accurate than everyone else and earlier in time. And even this will not give a guarantee of winning
Therefore, this is really a full-fledged lottery, where the luck factor is great enough.
Super curious Stefan how you know the average Sat has 12,000 registrations? Iāve been trying to figure out what a daily average would be for a while. I would say based on rough calculations that itās about 4-5000 during Mon to Fri maybe?
Yes, obviously Sat would be the highest as itās clear many people donāt have time to register cards during the week, plus some countries still have Sat delivery. Thanks!
It is almost 46% (=658/1440) of all slots on 24 January are already occupied.
And, apparently, tomorrow morning 70-80% of all slots will be filled.
And the probability distribution of the bets doesnāt even look like a normal distribution. This is a huge wave of participants from past dates who just move their bets āa little laterā step by step where they find a free slot.
This tells us that most part really doesnāt calculates anything, but just guesses.
Notes in excel sheet (as Iāve written somewhere else: to avoid certain errands Iād do anything but them)
DE has Saturday delivery, yes, and some/many other countries too. But others like (medium player) AT donāt have. Yes, there might be some TGIWE-effect, but overall Saturday is one of the slower-registration-days. Sunday is the slowest.
The strongest days vary a bit more between Tue, Wed and Thu (unless @greenskull has different specific data), maybe over a whole year Thursday would rank #1 the most. (Maybe as result of cards being written during the Weekend and than traveling to their destinations in Europe).
This 60th million tomorrow, like its 59th sibling, will have an average of 13,333 registrations per day.
6,007 to go
24.01.2021
14:01 UTC
edit PS: I like it that certain times like palindromes or echoes are more guessed that āstandardā times (now that is some weird German-English g)
edit 2 PPS: @greenskull again: I too like it that we meet in the middle of our very first guesses for this million