Countdown to 60 million postcards received

I keep my last prediction valid 24 January 14:37, but I will update it a little later.

Dear Manuela (@manuchka ), considering the distance from which you made your only bet and the possible error, I would not be too worried about that.
But in any case, do as you see fit :slight_smile:

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Dear Shikai (@SkyHound ), If you indicate the date and time (UTC), I will include your prediction in my calculation of the Most Talented Diviner in this countdown :slight_smile:

Let me remind that to the Most Talented Diviner, I will send my personal prize ā€“ a postcard with GreenSkullā€™s Magic Mandala fulfilling a wish.
I have outlined the calculation methodology above. It takes into account all the predictions and the distances from which they were made.

And of course, be sure to participate in the Official lottery from the founders of Postcrossing, where it is possible to adjust your prediction almost until the very last moment. And where it is important to be among the 7 most accurate bets at least until the level of 59,999,000 is passed.

Good luck to all! :slight_smile:

I am happy that I was too pessimistic with my last guesses ā€¦ maybe the better times are just around the corner

12,594 to go
24.01.2021
15:51 UTC

CO to CA

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15:08 UTC - 10k cards to go! This is exciting!

My current bet is 21:40 for Jan 23rd.

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I was too optimistic :wink:
I adjust my bet to 21:31 UTC, but still for today.

9 882 Cards to go!

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9686 I adjusted my time to midnight tonight

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I have at least 4 cards that should have arrived already (one expired) and I wonder if any of the recipients are trying to time it so that they register the 60 millionth card :thinking: :crossed_fingers:

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Oh no, you suddenly make me feel the same.
I have 3 cards that should have arrived already and I suspect one of them are trying to register the 60 millionth card :rofl: She logs in multiple times a day but havenā€™t register anything in 1 week. I also log in multiple times a day :rofl: but I donā€™t have any card to be registered.

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An average Saturday sees ~12,000 registrations. While European afternoon/evening is the most busy time, it does not bring the 75% you need for your guess of today.
50% probably, or maybe 60%, being generous.

But itā€™s fun to guess, no matter the maths gg

I wouldnā€™t rule out that there are some few users doing that. I am rarely around when we are really really close, so I donā€™t know what I personally would do. Waiting two hours - why not

Of course, I would not wait several days.

9,209 to go
24.01.2021
15:51 UTC

CO to CA

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Dose anyone think they will hit the mark tonight or get to 1000

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Right now.
379 participants in the Official Lottery still believe that the Moment of Truth will come today, January 23rd.
547 participants are betting on tomorrow, January 24th.
And 270 participants are in no hurry, January 25th.

Just updated the official lottery from Monday to tomorrow. We will see!

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Wow, you counted the missing times, or how did you get the numbers?

And yes @Stevyy my bet might be too early, but I have fun, with guessing. And I seem to be a very optimistic person :slight_smile:

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7807 to go
Now is 12:28 AM in here. I am afraid if I go to sleep I will miss it :rofl:

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Yes, on the page where we can set the date and time, I count the occupied and free slots. But of course I do it not myself, but with the help of XLS.

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Thanks for explaining, doing it yourself might be a confusing and /or exhausting task.

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The beauty of the Official Lottery is that the closer the Moment of Truth is, the more accurately you can predict it. But at the same time, the fewer free slots remain and you may just not find the right one.
Thus, you need to somehow manage to be more accurate than everyone else and earlier in time. And even this will not give a guarantee of winning :slight_smile:
Therefore, this is really a full-fledged lottery, where the luck factor is great enough.

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Super curious Stefan how you know the average Sat has 12,000 registrations? Iā€™ve been trying to figure out what a daily average would be for a while. I would say based on rough calculations that itā€™s about 4-5000 during Mon to Fri maybe?

Yes, obviously Sat would be the highest as itā€™s clear many people donā€™t have time to register cards during the week, plus some countries still have Sat delivery. Thanks!

It is almost 46% (=658/1440) of all slots on 24 January are already occupied.
And, apparently, tomorrow morning 70-80% of all slots will be filled.

And the probability distribution of the bets doesnā€™t even look like a normal distribution. This is a huge wave of participants from past dates who just move their bets ā€œa little laterā€ step by step where they find a free slot.
This tells us that most part really doesnā€™t calculates anything, but just guesses.

Notes in excel sheet :crazy_face: :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye: (as Iā€™ve written somewhere else: to avoid certain errands Iā€™d do anything but them)

DE has Saturday delivery, yes, and some/many other countries too. But others like (medium player) AT donā€™t have. Yes, there might be some TGIWE-effect, but overall Saturday is one of the slower-registration-days. Sunday is the slowest.
The strongest days vary a bit more between Tue, Wed and Thu (unless @greenskull has different specific data), maybe over a whole year Thursday would rank #1 the most. (Maybe as result of cards being written during the Weekend and than traveling to their destinations in Europe).

This 60th million tomorrow, like its 59th sibling, will have an average of 13,333 registrations per day.

6,007 to go
24.01.2021
14:01 UTC

edit PS: I like it that certain times like palindromes or echoes are more guessed that ā€˜standardā€™ times (now that is some weird German-English g)
edit 2 PPS: @greenskull again: I too like it that we meet in the middle of our very first guesses for this million :+1:

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