217 757 
to go
This is my new update of the Moment of Truth:
24 January at 18:47 (UTC).
173 300 postcards left to go.
Iām betting on the first of Feb. 
And 60 million isā¦ amazing!
Imagine all those cardsā¦ all those stampsā¦ All that time and effort of picking or making a card, writing it, going to the post boxā¦ all those travelling cardsā¦ All those happy receivers. 
(Iām probably a bit too romantic here 
)
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100 000 postcards left to go.
And my next update of the Moment of Truth is 24 January, 14:37 (UTC).
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Beside anger of/at our govās failures in regard to weallknowwhat (another 2-6 weeks of lockdown) my moodās tilting towards depressive too (no denial, a bit of bargaining, some acceptance), so my guess is more pessimistic than certain others 
Wish Iād feel your positive numbers)
The last (centi)mile ā¦ we can vision the celebrations already 
99,660 to go (true number this very minute)
26.01.2021
01:26 UTC
a card from CO to CA
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Interesting dynamic ā¦ and impossible to calculate 
48,944 to go
25.01.2021
21:20 UTC
A card from CO to CA
chances that itās one of mine: 1:3000
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48500 postcards left to go.
I keep my last prediction in force.
Starting to get excited! 
Donāt forget to place your bets for the chance of winning some postcard prizes!
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The day is the same the 31st but I changed the time to noon 13 oāclock
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44063 postcards left to go! 
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Hi, Manuela (@manuchka ),
I see that you have corrected the time in the comment from CET to UTC that means +1 hour to the first comment (17:24 CET).
Do I understand correctly that we are talking about 17:24 UTC = 18:24 CET?
@greenskull Hi, I corrected it the very day I wrote my post because I got confused with UTC /CET.
After checking now I confirm that your assumption is correct.
Ah! You want to compete with my first guess I saw that you corrected to somewhat close 14:00 UTC in the meantime. I stay with my guess anyway.
Yes, once I made a mistake in the calculations and immediately (within 10 minutes) wrote a new comment with the corrected time, and deleted the old comment.
I have never done any other time fixes in my previously written comments 
I keep a record of all the hits in this countdown, as I will then use them to calculate the most talented diviner.
I just want to understand which hit of yours I should take into account ā 17:24 CET or 17:24 UTC.
I clarify because your first try seemed to me better. But it is not exactly
No problem, Iāll choose the one that you name.
And in the official 60 mio lottery from the founders of Postcrossing, I also make changes every day.
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A small operation by the dentist and no justified pain for painkillers, so I am cranky and pessimistic. And, as always, stubborn 
:
32,536 to go
25.01.2021
01:25 UTC
A card from CO to CA
2 Likes
If to evaluate the number of occupied time slots, the most part of the participants in the official 60 mio lottery are expecting the Moment of Truth tomorrow on 23 January at about noon.
Although my personal expectations are different from the expectations of the collective unconscious.
Passions run high. Tomorrow it will be fun
25,000+ cards to register in 5 hours and my guess would be right. Ok, people, GO! Haha. 
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Last time I was 8 minutes off (21:00 predicted vs 20:52 actual) with a final lead time of 16 days (last prediction) using only 4 revisions (T minus 16/20/25/30 days). That was a different time back then.
Canāt say for sure this time, as we are dealing with both holiday dips and influxes, so regression method is less accurate (see the deviation in graph, the R-value is abysmal). I ended up with a hybrid of regression & tangent which lands somewhere between Sunday midnight and Monday afternoon.
Still, wait and see.
3 Likes
16 828 cards to go
Iām pretty sure it will happen today,
letās say at 14:49 ( and I just picked that time one the official contest page)
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I must admit it was not so clever from me to choose a Sunday dateā¦ no postal deliveries in most countries. 
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