Well I am now reaaaallly curious when the moment of truth will be! I am quite happy with my first “shot” 
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43,114 to go
25.05.2022
20:22 UTC
PA to IN
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It will happen the day after tomorrow.
The exact time of the event is debatable.
30,500 postcards left to go.
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25 May, 2022 at 11:10 (UTC)
21,660 postcards left to go.
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16,027 to go
25.05.2022
20:22 UTC
PA to IN
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My Magic Crystal Ball tells me that the Moment of Truth will come tomorrow
– May 25th at 13:41 (UTC).
This is my seventh prediction, and probably the last one in this countdown.
The prediction error is 1 hour on each side. That is, everything will happen in the interval from 12:41 to 14:41 (UTC) with high certainty.
14,950 postcards left to go and ~1 day.
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Buckle up, everyone — we’re almost there!
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5600 left
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Note: the server will be down today from 11:11 until 19:19. Registrations can be done again after this break. This disruption won’t stop us from reaching the 67th million today, but it will delay the magic registration, which will happen around 8:22 pm. justkidding
4,409 to go
today, 25.05.2022
20:22 UTC
PA to IN
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Everything goes according to plan.
The red dot is the current value and it lies almost perfectly on the forecast curve.
So my last prediction still stands.
4,290 postcards left to go and about 6 hours 45 min.
PS And I already know to whom I will send a card with a Magic Mandala that grants a wish
But let’s wait for the end of this countdown
Ooh! You evil person! 
Had me fooled 
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Ooooooooh, mail will be delivered before that time, so I could be registering…will I receive a card today or not?!
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Officially, you shouldn’t be due any cards - but of course with long traveling cards and the demand-for-adresses-leads-to-receiving-more, there’s a chance for you. Good luck.
I have (calculated very hopefully/generously) seven cards traveling that could arrive/be registered today - so there’s a 1:500* chance for me.
3,716 to go
*I know that my chance does not change to 1:10 or 1:1 later in the process, still don’t know why. Any thoughts, @greenskull ? Is it because the potential registration is not guaranteed? Any cool formula out there? Or is the chance a fixed number, always everytime potential_arrivals:overall_daily_registrations
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I believe that here it is necessary to evaluate the probability of getting bingo necessarily in relation to the time interval.
(1)
We roughly know when the Moment of Truth will come.
We take an interval, say 6 hours, around this Moment of Truth and count how many of all postcards will be registered at that time.
We count how many of your sent postcards fall into this interval.
If the probability of each of your postcards falling into this interval was 1.0 (100%), then it would be enough to divide the number of your postcards by the total number of all postcards in the interval.
This would be the answer what is the probability of getting bingo in the interval of 6 hours.
But it all is not so easy
Read more...
(2)
Therefore, for each of your postcards, we evaluate the probabilities of falling into this interval. How to do this is a topic for a separate discussion. But for simplicity, you can do it rough by eye, choosing for each postcard one of several values for simplicity (0.0 or 0.25 or 0.5 or 0.75 or 1.0). Since the exact calculation is a rather difficult task.
And then sum the quotients of these probabilities for all your cards in this interval.
Let’s assume that two of your postcards fall into the interval. The first one falls there with a probability of 1.0 (100%), the other with a probability of 0.5 (50%). And the total number of all postcards falling into the 6 hours interval, let’s say 2000 postcards.
Then you need to calculate:
(1.0/2000) + (0.5/2000) = desired chance to get bingo in the 6 hours time interval
And now the most interesting.
Next, you need to estimate the limit to which this value tends when narrowing the interval to zero width relative to the Moment of Truth
And of course, the probabilities of falling into a narrowing interval for each of your postcards will begin to change. They directly depend on its width.
But it is possible to act more simply and evaluate this limit, narrowing the interval only to the width of the interval in which the Moment of Truth walks back and forth and does not reliably go beyond its boundaries.
PS If you look at my graph, the light blue tube is the interval in which the actual value of the number of registered postcards walks with a probability close to 100% and does not go beyond its boundaries. The width of this tube is about 2 hours.
The farther from the Moment of Truth - the wider it is, the closer - the narrower it is.
This tube is called the confidence interval.
And in order to evaluate the probability of getting bingo, it is enough to use an interval with a width in which the fact of the value walks with a probability close to 100%.
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less than 3000 postcards to go!
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Around 1700 to go 
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889 to go!
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689 to go
less than an hour, probably a European new home
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