🎯 Countdown to 63 million cards registered

Let me please start the next countdown. I hope nobody will mind if I do it this time :slight_smile:

So, the countdown to 63 million postcards received is open!

Suggest your ideas for the Moment of Truth when Postcrossing will cross the next milestone of 63 million postcards received (=registered).
We are all in different time zones, so it is better please to indicate the date and time in UTC format:

All the data we have is on the main Postcrossing page in the block of Postcrossing in numbers:

and also here:
https://www.postcrossing.com/stats/postcards

I wish everyone to enjoy the process of participating in this countdown!

2 Likes

This made me laugh!

Well, I’m thinking things will slow down with summer, so what happened last time won’t help at all. I will definitely come back later and have another go.

But, this is my initial guess:

8th September 0008 hours

1 Like

May I join again?
My guess is August 24 at 16:24 UTC.

1 Like

Your own guess is missing, @greenskull

906,781 to go

18.08.2021
18:08 UTC

a card from CH to IL
(CH-IL -L … because after these last months and stuff going on still, we all deserve a time to chill)

1 Like

My Magic Crystal Ball tells me that the knight will come to us when the Sun is in the constellation Leo and the Moon is in the constellation Aquarius.

What modern date system means 20 August. As for the time, let’s say 18:00.
So, my prediction is August 20, 18:00 (UTC).

Surprisingly, Stefan, (@Stevyy ) our initial predictions are pretty close. Although, when calculating, I did not take into account someone’s predictions.

Much depends on how June and July will end, and to what level of August the trend of the postcards received will go.
I assume that the results of these months will be as follows:
June 428,024, the June June 62,335,261
July 397,602, the sum for July 62,732,863
August 404,162, the sum for August 63,137,025

Depending on how the fact of June and July deviates, I will adjust my initial forecast.

I say August 22nd, 12.08 UTC.

2 Likes

In this countdown, I will once again prepare and send the Greenskulls’s Magic Mandala postcard to the most talented diviner who reaches the highest predictions rate. The counting method is described here.

I will choose a very special postcard depending on who will be the winner :slight_smile:

Artificial Intelligence will create a unique Magic Mandala. And I will initiate it with my special greenskull signet.
This Magic Mandala will fulfill one the most cherished wish of the addressee, if they conceive it and at that moment blow on the Mandala.
By the way, it is better to do all this with your eyes closed, then the wish is fulfilled rather :slight_smile:

And I have already chosen 3 very beautiful LARGE and 1 small stamps for this postcard.
You can admire the stamps right now below.

By the way, who is interested, the cost of sending a postcard from Russia abroad is 52 Russian rubles, which is about 0.7 US dollars or 0.6 Euros.

I really love stamps. In general, I have got about two hundred stamps of various series, sizes and shapes. There are even fragrant stamps that smell like fruit. But I’ll leave that for the next time :slight_smile:
Now the set includes a racing car, a collie dog, and samples of the uniform of railway employees.

I wish everyone good predictions!

1 Like

Five days ago I wrote:

I have just made new very careful calculations and they show that June, July and August will probably close with such results:
June 419,858, the June June 62,327,095
July 382,059, the sum for July 62,709,154
August 418,364, the sum for August 63,127,518

And if, to rely on them, then we will cross the level of 63 million a couple of days later than my previous prediction.
So, my new guess is 22 August 2021, at 13:00 (UTC).

Thus, the gap between our predictions with Stefan (@Stevyy ) increases to ~4 days.

27.27% of the way already passed.

724 106 cards to go

My guess is 4th September, because my previous guesses were always to early.

2 Likes

May I join you too? I also want to make my guess:)
I think the 63 millionth postcard will be registered on August 17 at 17:32 UTC. Postcard from the Czech Republic to Russia

2 Likes

Hmm, my guess is October 15th at 13:00 UTC

2 Likes

I admit that I was very hasty about the August 22 prediction.
My magic crystal ball insists on the date of August 20.
I will only change the time slightly from my initial forecast.
So my third iteration is that:
20 August 2021, 3:00 (UTC)

The fact is that since mid-February 2020, the stationary growth trend of the postcards received (registered) has been greatly disrupted by the influence of the decline in Postcrossing activity due to the COVID-19 pandemic. And the trend hasn’t fully recovered yet.
We are in the phase of a transitional process of its recovery, which is rather difficult but also interesting to predict.

Stefan (@Stevyy ), I see that you are using parabolic extrapolation to sample data over an interval of 3-4 months :slight_smile: Or did it seem to me?

And I will also adjust the forecast for July and August:
July 412,000, the sum for July 62,752,000
August 395,600, the sum for August 63,147,500

605 221 cards to go

Halfway done.

More than halfway there. Northern summer slowdown is stronger than I’ve expected (don’t wanna believe some other ugly reasons). Hard to tell how the next weeks will be. But I have to adapt my guess, slightly

443,834 to go

21.08.21
21.08 UTC

a card from CH to IL

@greenskull: yes, I take the average of the last weeks/months, take effects and events into account, and hope for the best

1 Like

21.08.21
02:45 UTC

409,500 postcards left to go.

2 Likes