🎯 Countdown to 63 million cards registered

265 284 cards to go

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Up and down it goes, the weekly average, with a difference of more than 1100 … it’s almost like the dynamic of the **** with all the ancient Greek letters and the waves and curves.

My tooth is hurting, so I’ll stay on the pessimistic side with my guess.

Three quarters done
246,478 to go

21.08.21
21:08 UTC

a card from CH to IL

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The last third of the way is my favorite part of the countdown.
And my Magic Crystal Ball tells me:
19.08.21
17:20 (UTC)

Stefan (@Stevyy ), are you sure you would not like to correct your prediction? :slight_smile:

196 222 cards to go :thinking:

19.08.21
03:30 (UTC)

141500 postcards left until Moment of Truth (63 mio milestone).

I do not know 100% reliably when we will cross the 63 million level, but if we accept my current forecast as the Moment of Truth, then at the current moment I see the most accurate rates from Lyudmila (@LyudmilaS ) and Stefan (@Stevyy ).
I estimate accuracy as the ratio of possible error given the distance at which predictions were made.

If the Мoment of Truth floats forward relative to my current prediction, then Stefan’s predictions will be more accurate. If the Мoment of Truth floats back relative to my prediction, then Lyudmila’s prediction will be more accurate.

And of course, if other participants adjust their predictions taking into account the development of the situation, then the chances of becoming the best diviner in this countdown may be equal.

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I realized long ago that my prediction was inaccurate. But since I made a bet, I will not change it. To some extent, I am very stubborn :grin:

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Your prediction is 17/08/21 17:32 (UTC). The error will not exceed 2 days.
And you made your prediction almost 50 days before the supposed cherished date.

Stefan’s first prediction looks very accurate too. But the picture began to blur as Stefan began to get ahead of the cherished date.

Let’s see how events will develop. It is possible that in the next 10 days any factor will appear that will distort my vision of the Moment of Truth for a couple of days.

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99,050 postcards left to go.
And my next refined prediction is 18.08.2021 16:19 (UTC).

It is incredibly, but Stefan’s (@Stevyy ) very first prediction is surprisingly close to this moment. The difference is about two hours.
I think Stefan should have stopped at it :slight_smile:

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Small steps, big steps, the million’s almost 'round the corner. Some countries would have a holiday soon (Assumption of Mary), but this year it’s a Sunday, so no big effect. Also, unlike Christmas/New Years single holidays in limited regions are compensated within a few hours/days anyway.
Other distractions/disruptions: too many, sadly. Still I will change my pessimistic guess and return to a slightly optimistic one.

85,428 to go

18.08.2021
18:08 UTC

a card from CH to IL
(CH-IL -L … because after these last months and stuff going on still, we all deserve a time to chill)

Nice try! My fresh prediction is 18.08.2021 15:18 (UTC).

Just a little more than 4 days and 54 750 postcards left until Moment of Truth.

38,184 to go

I am almost sure it will be the 18th of August. But when? When? Dimmi quando, sag mir wann? So my guess for the day is

18.08.2021
12:02 UTC

a card from CH to IL

PS: with 18 cards that could arrive on Wednesday, my chances stand at ~1:800

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It looks like 18.08.2021 13:40 (UTC).

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33891 to go.

Possibilities that 63 million reached on Wednesday are high.

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Here is my prediction (if still possible to join):

18.08.2021, 17:42 (UTC)

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21 588 to go. I feel like my guess of 22.8. is too far away. :thinking::grin:

As is mine of 20.08.

18.08.2021 10:00 (UTC)

17 030 postcards left to go.
And I think I already know to whom I will send a postcard with a Magic Mandala.
Let’s wait for tomorrow :slight_smile:

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Did I forget to guess !?

18.08.2021
05:50 UTC

FR to EE :wink:

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9138 to go

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9,023 to go

18.08.2021
12:02 UTC

a card from CH to IL

PS: still ~18 cards that could arrive on Wednesday, my chances that mio63 is one of mine still stand at ~1:800
PPS: @greenskull and other math maniacs: I know that my chances don’t change to 1:10 when it’s only 180 to go, but why?