Countdown to 62 million cards registered

From my point of view, the date is completely clear, it is June 07.
Now it all comes down to predicting the time as accurately as possible.
According to my various estimates, this is the evening of June 07. The most probable time interval, in my opinion, is 17:00…20:00. I bet at 18:00, as some calculation methods give some offset at an earlier time.

I love Stefan’s (@Stevyy) very first prediction (06 June, 20:21). Taking into account the distance from which it was made (~60 days from supposed Moment of Truth), this is almost jewelry accuracy. And the current one day correction that Stefan just made is absolutely logical.

There are some more good early bets out there in my opinion from @ScubaET, @Kogotok7, @thibcabe and @Florallle.
And if these participants want to make new (additional) more precise predictions, then the total result may turn out to be very close to the actual one. But I am not imposing it in any way.

A very intriguing bet followed recently from @catinboots. Here everything will be determined by the minutes and, of course, luck.

However, I wish good luck to everyone!

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I was coming to the forum to check whether there was already a topic for the 62 million, and of course there is! :smiley:

Mail is so wonky at the moment that it could go either way. If this slow down continues, it will drag the 62 million a few hours/days back… but if it resolves itself in the next few days and a big boat/plane of mail arrives in Europe, it could speed things up again.

In any case, less than 100K postcards to go! Exciting!

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I’d like to be a true Diviner and hit the jackpot by only adding one guess to the game :wink:

But maybe I should put my repeated countries on and hit my max on travelling cards by sending loads of cards to Germany indeed :stuck_out_tongue:

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I absolutely agree. I have noticed that mail has slowed down a bit lately. Moreover, there was a Memorial Day in the USA yesterday and they probably were not sending as much mail as usual.
I still stick to June, 7. Let it be 19:00 UTC :thinking: it’s the first time I participate in predicting something on this forum.

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If only one prediction is allowed, then it will be reasonable to make it only a day before in order to hit it for sure :slight_smile:

I know why yesterday was a bit weaker than a usual Thursday … it was holiday Corpus Christi is some countries and regions. (From postcrossing-superpowers Poland and Bavaria to the middle class like Austria and Portugal to the lucky participants like Liechtenstein and Timor-Leste). What I don’t know: what will happen in the next decisive days??

47,448 to go

08:06 UTC

a card from FI to NO

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June 10th is also a holiday around here… though I guess it won’t have much of an impact :slight_smile:

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07 June 2021 at 20:45

My last guess :slight_smile:

7th June
14:41 UTC

US to AT

32,841 postcard to go! :smiley:

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How about 13:45 on 7th June 2021, UTC and, let’s say, UK -> CN

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This is P.R.China.I am a beginner.
I want give someone a tag.
12:05 UTC

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Your prediction of the moment of crossing the 62 million level is at the time of your comment writing. This is not a completely correct attempt. Please try again.

08 June 2021 at 1:25 (UTC, of course).
At least my Magic Crystal Ball shows this time at the moment. In fact, it will probably be closer to midnight. I think Monday will speed up the Moment of Truth.

22,460 postcards left to go.

I do not know the exact time when we will cross the 62 million level. But if we assume that my last prediction is so (although, of course, this is too loose an assumption), then the most accurate (the highest Diviner Talent Rate) are at the moment:
@catinboots (26,97)
@Stevyy (21,90)
@ScubaET (21,85)
@salgueira (21,06)
@greenskull (17,01)
@Florallle (16,55)

This is a preliminary estimate, taking into account the assumption that the Moment of Truth will come on June 08 at 1:25 (UTC).
But of course, everything can change if the Moment of Truth turns out to be different.


How many cards will this day possibly bring, before we are getting real close? :musical_score: :musical_note: :musical_note:

It’s delayed registrations of Sunday versus general slowdown (for whatever reason/s). My toe hurts, so I’ll stay ‘pessimistic’

21,995 to go

08:06 UTC

a card from FI to NO

This day on June 06, starting from 00:00 and until 24:00, will bring 11,100 postcards to the Postcrossing piggy box.
I can estimate it to within fifty postcards.

And I believe that at the end of this day at midnight, the distance traveled will be 61,986,400. That is, from midnight we’ll still have 13,600 postcards left to go. And this is a little more than we go through in a day.

Your math is interesting … no Sunday in my file has had more than 10k registrations since March. On the other side my Tue- to Fridays usually have more than 13,600. Tomorrow Monday, on the other side, it truely will be a challenge to bring all the necessary registrations for the next milemilestone …

21,011 to go

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I’m going to treat myself to a second guess:

8th June 6.08am.

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13,350 postcards left to go.
And at the moment we are lagging behind my forecast at 1,830 postcards.
Will we make up for this difference to make my prediction come true?

9202 cards to go

Today somewhere near midnight maybe?
But actually tomorrow seems more possible.