The Health of Postcrossing

You think right. This Ranking is exactly TOP-100 that I mentioned above.

And once more:
Even if the proportion of postcrossers playing at the limit of their limits among the TOP-10 000 is only 5% (just 500 members), this will stop the trend from falling.

Unfortunately, you will not be able to get a correct estimate of gain in terms of averages.
Since the dependencies within this system are NON-LINEAR. And the calculations require more complex mathematical approaches.

I can truly say that those at least 500 postcrossers who play at their limit between 20 slots and 100 slots make about +250,000 extra cards a year. This is exactly the recession that we have at the present time.
And taking into account the fact that their limits will grow faster, then in a couple of years the decline will not only stop, but will also turn into growth.
And, if those are not 5%, but 10-20%, everything will happen faster.

That user is from Amparo1976 The Netherlands. I agree she is an outlier, but these are her stats. She had 50 cards sent in Feb 2022, that’s 10 cards max. One year later, she has 304 cards sent, that’s 15 cards. You’re right, I don’t know why I said 20, it’s only 15. But in March 2023 she did send 23 cards (well, technically she sent some of them in February, but that’s harder to count :slight_smile:

Everyone who sends regularly - not necessarily at slot limit - will show a similar pattern.

#1 most active in the past 60 days does not share this pattern. She had a recent spike.

#100 most active in the past 60 days has this pattern, and she sent on average 2.5 postcards fewer per day than #1.

I agree it’s hard to get to the precise formula. My last card sent to the UK arrived in 9 days. But if I draw China on that replacement slot, it will arrive in maybe 60…

Let’s sleep on it then until we have the census.

If we are talking about the TOP-100, then you need to recognize the pattern. Above, I indicated several times what the pattern looks like for those who have accumulated 100 slots for several years and now play at the limit of 100 slots.

For those who have NOT yet reached the 100 slot level, this is an exponential curve with certain characteristics. But among the TOP-100 there are no such postcrossers who play at the limit of slots, the maximum of which is quite below 100. Because they obviously make less than 150 postcards a month.

But among the TOP-100 there are about half of those who play near the limit of their slots, and among the TOP-10 000 such players are 10…20%. I can’t say for sure because I use indirect valuation methods and don’t own all the data that the founders have.
The lowest estimate is 5%. And even in this case, we will get compensation for the downtrend. And it will take a little more time to reverse the trend in the direction of growth due to the inertia of Postcrossing.

It makes no sense to overload this thread with mathematical calculations. They are pretty complex.
Let me just say that the New Slot Rule perfectly solves the problem of the decline in the volume of Postcrossing postcards.
The only question is the political will of the founders.
If so, then there will be growth.
If not, then we will continue to fall. And in the next 5 years, Postcrossing will fall to the level of 2011, and the volume of cards will be half as much as in the best years of the game 2013…2014.

I’m curious why you conclude that anyone with 20 slots will fill them all? I have 26 open just now…I may write 5 cards this weekend, but do not have time or money to do more. I’m amazed that others are sending 500 a month;
I can afford to participate but not at this high level that you guys are proposing…

2 Likes

I don’t, I was only describing somebody who always sends the maximum number of cards they are allowed. I also think this is a very rare scenario.

@greenskull’s theory is that there are at least 500 postcrossers at the moment would send 250.000 extra cards a year if given the chance. To me as well this is a stretch of the numbers that does not take into account real-life constraints of time and money. I can’t imagine there are 500 people around here that are not already top postcrossers (that haven’t reached their slot limit of 100 = that have sent approximately fewer than 4500 cards in total at the moment) that could find the time and money to send avg 500 extra cards per year on top of the already high number they are sending. In Romania that would cost 750 euro. That’s pretty close to average monthly wage around here. Add a minumum of 100 euros for the cards. No way.

3 Likes

I know our lovely northern neighbors say that the high postage cost in Canada has reduced their ability to participate and I think Australian postage is quite expensive as well. I think this, plus difficulty finding local cards, are limiting factors for many members.

1 Like

26 slots would never equate to 26 cards per week as most cards take 10/20 to 60 or more days to travel :thinking:

2 Likes

You are right.
I will assume that playing at the limit of 26 slots gives an average of 36-42 cards per month. And that’s 8-10 postcards a week.

According to the New Slot Rule, such a player would have 41 slots instead of 26, and this postcrosser would send not 36-40 postcards, but about 58-64 per month.
Even if this player starts saving and does not use the maximum of their slots, it will still give an increase that will cover the overall decline in the total trend.

If we assume that of the TOP-10 000 who make more than half of all registrations, at least 5% (that is, 500 postcrossers) play at the limit of their slots (and these are players in the spectrum from 20 to 100 slots with a complex non-linear distribution), then they will make at least 250,000 extra postcards a year. And for 5 years more than 1 million postcards. That’s right, yes.
There is no need to imagine anything, it is mathematics :slight_smile:

Although it’s impossible to think so, it’s quite rough 250,000 for 500 postcrossers = 500 postcards per year for one. Nothing supernatural.
Realistically, this would be a rank of 200 to 2000 postcards per year per one postcrosser, since they have slots ranging from 20 to 100.

It’s not a theory, it’s a complex calculation.
The fact may differ from it, but not critically, and may differ only in a big way. The idea of the New Slot Rule will still work great.

2 Likes

Can we examine various rates of expired cards, perhaps examining by year, country, or significant relationships between countries between whom have the highest rates of expired cards?

1 Like

If we are limited only by the statistics available on the site, then we cannot.
Since this data cannot be seen or obtained by indirect means. At least I don’t see a way to do it.
But the founders of the game certainly can. Since they know all the generated addresses for sending postcards that were never registered as received, in relation to the time, the country of the sender and the country of the recipient.

But some TOP-postcrossers keep such statistics themselves.
For example, Willi estimates the total number of expired cards as 2.41% of all cards sent. And in his profile we can see this statistics by year.

1 Like

My instrument to see if Postcrossing is ‘healthy’ is usualy to see on the homepage:

Do we all have an avarage number up or under half a postcard travelling 0-60 days at this very moment?

Now 800,400+ members have around 375,000 cards travelling. We are under half a card.
For every half a card that I have extra travelling, there is 1 postcrosser who has none travelling cards.
If I have 100 travelling - 199 users have 0 travelling. Roughly.

Around World Postcard Day in October we are above half a card per user. Populair time.
Around Christmas we are often above half a card travelling. Slow mail keeps card staying in travelling status.

2 Likes