I want to share here an optimistic forecast for the number of registered postcards per year, if we leave everything as it is and do not change anything.
And, of course, if another shock does not occur in the world.
The values for the years 2023…2032 are forecast. Most likely, the fact will be slightly lower.
| Year | Poscrads per year | Growth over the previous year |
|---|---|---|
| 2005 | 40 082 | |
| 2006 | 314 530 | |
| 2007 | 485 800 | 54,45% |
| 2008 | 937 287 | 92,94% |
| 2009 | 1 731 717 | 84,76% |
| 2010 | 2 502 668 | 44,52% |
| 2011 | 3 649 580 | 45,83% |
| 2012 | 5 344 059 | 46,43% |
| 2013 | 6 107 132 | 14,28% |
| 2014 | 6 253 721 | 2,40% |
| 2015 | 6 024 930 | -3,66% |
| 2016 | 5 946 735 | -1,30% |
| 2017 | 5 425 005 | -8,77% |
| 2018 | 5 287 315 | -2,54% |
| 2019 | 5 100 682 | -3,53% |
| 2020 | 4 513 545 | -11,51% |
| 2021 | 5 289 716 | 17,20% |
| 2022 | 4 993 468 | -5,60% |
| 2023 | 4 760 000 | -4,68% |
| 2024 | 4 442 000 | -6,68% |
| 2025 | 4 133 000 | -6,96% |
| 2026 | 3 837 000 | -7,16% |
| 2027 | 3 541 000 | -7,71% |
| 2028 | 3 253 000 | -8,13% |
| 2029 | 2 948 000 | -9,38% |
| 2030 | 2 652 000 | -10,04% |
| 2031 | 2 356 000 | -11,16% |
If we adjust the slot rule in accordance with my suggestion, then we will at least prevent the trend from sliding down. And I estimate that in a few years (2-3 years) we will change the trend towards growth.
To be or not to be let the founders of postcrossing decide.
Time will act as a judge.