Countdown to 78 Million Postcards

Like Floralle mentions we are half-way there. While we don’t see northern summer yet in registrations, I take the traveling cards as hint for the seasonal slowdown. That’s why I stick with my origin guess (I would have anyway, but now there’s even proof and reason :wink: )

495,987 to go

20.08.2024
20:20 UTC

a card from DE to FR (showing future Euro-Olympic soccer doublewinning team)

5 Likes

If my sums are right, that was 38 days till the halfway point. 38 days from yesterday takes us to 17th August. Of course, that’s assuming there’s no slowing down, as @Stevyy says. Or indeed, speeding up!

4 Likes

I will do my 2nd guess:
16.08.24 Fri 15:11 (UTC)

Almost 52% of the way behind.

Name Axis X Date & Time (DD/MM/YY DDD HH:MM)
@Verenai 6 976,7660 06/08/24 Tue 18:23
@ChocCrossie 6 977,2708 07/08/24 Wed 06:30
@Fenja1987 6 981,4167 11/08/24 Sun 10:00
@nnniiina 6 984,3806 14/08/24 Wed 09:08
@Katch 6 985,5382 15/08/24 Thu 12:55
@reiselustig 6 985,9319 15/08/24 Thu 22:22
@greenskull 6 986,6326 16/08/24 Fri 15:11 – my 2nd guess
@xxxxyyyyzzzz 6 986,8729 16/08/24 Fri 20:57
@alsace_girl 6 986,9792 16/08/24 Fri 23:30
@Florallle 6 987,4285 17/08/24 Sat 10:17
@tesc 6 987,5000 17/08/24 Sat 12:00
@vesselland 6 989,0833 19/08/24 Mon 02:00
@Silpa 6 989,4271 19/08/24 Mon 10:15
@GrauBunt 6 989,5889 19/08/24 Mon 14:08
@Stevyy 6 990,8472 20/08/24 Tue 20:20
@SchusterElse 6 990,8861 20/08/24 Tue 21:16
@Telopea 6 991,1667 21/08/24 Wed 04:00
@artdavinci 6 991,7604 21/08/24 Wed 18:15
@Cerimoon 6 992,1368 22/08/24 Thu 03:17
@Yvonnche 6 992,6250 22/08/24 Thu 15:00
@emotional 6 994,2917 24/08/24 Sat 07:00
@P05tkatze 6 995,0590 25/08/24 Sun 01:25
@LyudmilaS 6 995,7917 25/08/24 Sun 19:00
@Hemang 6 997,7917 27/08/24 Tue 19:00
4 Likes

Here is my guess. 18th August 8pm.

3 Likes

This is what we have today and now.

My model indicates that the moment of truth will occur on August 16, 2024 Fri at 12:42 pm, which is very close to my second prediction. So for now I’m sticking with my second prediction.

I have highlighted areas that have different chances of catching the moment of truth. Perhaps this will encourage someone to adjust their bid.

Name Axis X Date & Time (DD/MM/YY DDD HH:MM)
@Verenai 6 976,7660 06/08/24 Tue 18:23
@ChocCrossie 6 977,2708 07/08/24 Wed 06:30
@Fenja1987 6 981,4167 11/08/24 Sun 10:00
@nnniiina 6 984,3806 14/08/24 Wed 09:08
@Katch 6 985,5382 15/08/24 Thu 12:55 – Ok (green area)
@reiselustig 6 985,9319 15/08/24 Thu 22:22 – Ok (green area)
@greenskull 6 986,6326 16/08/24 Fri 15:11 – Ok (green area)
@xxxxyyyyzzzz 6 986,8729 16/08/24 Fri 20:57 – Ok (green area)
@alsace_girl 6 986,9792 16/08/24 Fri 23:30 – Ok (green area)
@Florallle 6 987,4285 17/08/24 Sat 10:17 – Ok (green area)
@tesc 6 987,5000 17/08/24 Sat 12:00 – Ok (green area)
@VanCity95 6 988,8333 18/08/24 Sun 20:00
@vesselland 6 989,0833 19/08/24 Mon 02:00
@Silpa 6 989,4271 19/08/24 Mon 10:15
@GrauBunt 6 989,5889 19/08/24 Mon 14:08
@Stevyy 6 990,8472 20/08/24 Tue 20:20
@SchusterElse 6 990,8861 20/08/24 Tue 21:16
@Telopea 6 991,1667 21/08/24 Wed 04:00
@artdavinci 6 991,7604 21/08/24 Wed 18:15
@Cerimoon 6 992,1368 22/08/24 Thu 03:17
@Yvonnche 6 992,6250 22/08/24 Thu 15:00
@emotional 6 994,2917 24/08/24 Sat 07:00
@P05tkatze 6 995,0590 25/08/24 Sun 01:25
@LyudmilaS 6 995,7917 25/08/24 Sun 19:00
@Hemang 6 997,7917 27/08/24 Tue 19:00

So, we have 25 predictions. One of them has been corrected.
Mean = 18.08.24 Sun 15:21
Median = 19.08.24 Mon 02:00
Mode = 19.08.24 Mon 00:14
But I assume that it will happen a few days earlier :slight_smile:

7 Likes

Can I correct my tip a little?
The calculations are based on my parents’ wedding day
19.08.2024 - I’ll assume 12 o’clock

2 Likes