Like Floralle mentions we are half-way there. While we don’t see northern summer yet in registrations, I take the traveling cards as hint for the seasonal slowdown. That’s why I stick with my origin guess (I would have anyway, but now there’s even proof and reason 
)
495,987 to go
20.08.2024
20:20 UTC
a card from DE to FR (showing future Euro-Olympic soccer doublewinning team)
If my sums are right, that was 38 days till the halfway point. 38 days from yesterday takes us to 17th August. Of course, that’s assuming there’s no slowing down, as @Stevyy says. Or indeed, speeding up!
I will do my 2nd guess:
16.08.24 Fri 15:11 (UTC)
Almost 52% of the way behind.
| Name | Axis X | Date & Time (DD/MM/YY DDD HH:MM) |
|---|---|---|
| @Verenai | 6 976,7660 | 06/08/24 Tue 18:23 |
| @ChocCrossie | 6 977,2708 | 07/08/24 Wed 06:30 |
| @Fenja1987 | 6 981,4167 | 11/08/24 Sun 10:00 |
| @nnniiina | 6 984,3806 | 14/08/24 Wed 09:08 |
| @Katch | 6 985,5382 | 15/08/24 Thu 12:55 |
| @reiselustig | 6 985,9319 | 15/08/24 Thu 22:22 |
| @greenskull | 6 986,6326 | 16/08/24 Fri 15:11 – my 2nd guess |
| @xxxxyyyyzzzz | 6 986,8729 | 16/08/24 Fri 20:57 |
| @alsace_girl | 6 986,9792 | 16/08/24 Fri 23:30 |
| @Florallle | 6 987,4285 | 17/08/24 Sat 10:17 |
| @tesc | 6 987,5000 | 17/08/24 Sat 12:00 |
| @vesselland | 6 989,0833 | 19/08/24 Mon 02:00 |
| @Silpa | 6 989,4271 | 19/08/24 Mon 10:15 |
| @GrauBunt | 6 989,5889 | 19/08/24 Mon 14:08 |
| @Stevyy | 6 990,8472 | 20/08/24 Tue 20:20 |
| @SchusterElse | 6 990,8861 | 20/08/24 Tue 21:16 |
| @Telopea | 6 991,1667 | 21/08/24 Wed 04:00 |
| @artdavinci | 6 991,7604 | 21/08/24 Wed 18:15 |
| @Cerimoon | 6 992,1368 | 22/08/24 Thu 03:17 |
| @Yvonnche | 6 992,6250 | 22/08/24 Thu 15:00 |
| @emotional | 6 994,2917 | 24/08/24 Sat 07:00 |
| @P05tkatze | 6 995,0590 | 25/08/24 Sun 01:25 |
| @LyudmilaS | 6 995,7917 | 25/08/24 Sun 19:00 |
| @Hemang | 6 997,7917 | 27/08/24 Tue 19:00 |
Here is my guess. 18th August 8pm.
This is what we have today and now.
My model indicates that the moment of truth will occur on August 16, 2024 Fri at 12:42 pm, which is very close to my second prediction. So for now I’m sticking with my second prediction.
I have highlighted areas that have different chances of catching the moment of truth. Perhaps this will encourage someone to adjust their bid.
| Name | Axis X | Date & Time (DD/MM/YY DDD HH:MM) |
|---|---|---|
| @Verenai | 6 976,7660 | 06/08/24 Tue 18:23 |
| @ChocCrossie | 6 977,2708 | 07/08/24 Wed 06:30 |
| @Fenja1987 | 6 981,4167 | 11/08/24 Sun 10:00 |
| @nnniiina | 6 984,3806 | 14/08/24 Wed 09:08 |
| @Katch | 6 985,5382 | 15/08/24 Thu 12:55 – Ok (green area) |
| @reiselustig | 6 985,9319 | 15/08/24 Thu 22:22 – Ok (green area) |
| @greenskull | 6 986,6326 | 16/08/24 Fri 15:11 – Ok (green area) |
| @xxxxyyyyzzzz | 6 986,8729 | 16/08/24 Fri 20:57 – Ok (green area) |
| @alsace_girl | 6 986,9792 | 16/08/24 Fri 23:30 – Ok (green area) |
| @Florallle | 6 987,4285 | 17/08/24 Sat 10:17 – Ok (green area) |
| @tesc | 6 987,5000 | 17/08/24 Sat 12:00 – Ok (green area) |
| @VanCity95 | 6 988,8333 | 18/08/24 Sun 20:00 |
| @vesselland | 6 989,0833 | 19/08/24 Mon 02:00 |
| @Silpa | 6 989,4271 | 19/08/24 Mon 10:15 |
| @GrauBunt | 6 989,5889 | 19/08/24 Mon 14:08 |
| @Stevyy | 6 990,8472 | 20/08/24 Tue 20:20 |
| @SchusterElse | 6 990,8861 | 20/08/24 Tue 21:16 |
| @Telopea | 6 991,1667 | 21/08/24 Wed 04:00 |
| @artdavinci | 6 991,7604 | 21/08/24 Wed 18:15 |
| @Cerimoon | 6 992,1368 | 22/08/24 Thu 03:17 |
| @Yvonnche | 6 992,6250 | 22/08/24 Thu 15:00 |
| @emotional | 6 994,2917 | 24/08/24 Sat 07:00 |
| @P05tkatze | 6 995,0590 | 25/08/24 Sun 01:25 |
| @LyudmilaS | 6 995,7917 | 25/08/24 Sun 19:00 |
| @Hemang | 6 997,7917 | 27/08/24 Tue 19:00 |
So, we have 25 predictions. One of them has been corrected.
Mean = 18.08.24 Sun 15:21
Median = 19.08.24 Mon 02:00
Mode = 19.08.24 Mon 00:14
But I assume that it will happen a few days earlier 
Can I correct my tip a little?
The calculations are based on my parents’ wedding day
19.08.2024 - I’ll assume 12 o’clock
This is what we have at the moment now:
And the closer look:
So, we have 25 predictions. Two of them has been corrected.
Mean = 18.08.24 Sun 12:21
Median = 19.08.24 Mon 02:00
Mode = 18.08.24 Sun 20:14
But according to my trend model, everything will happen a couple of days earlier.
Calculation according to the current model gives the Moment of Truth Aug 16 Fri, 13:19 (UTC).
72.7% of the way has already been covered.
There are 273,440 postcards left to register.
This will take just under 3 weeks.
PS
Currently, ~98,000 postcards are registered each week (every 7 days). But this value is decreasing and in three weeks it will fall to about ~93,000 postcards per week.
If we take some average of ~95,000 per week, then for the remaining 273,440 postcards it will take (273,440 / 95,000) = 2.9 weeks, that is, about ~20 days.
(July 27 + 20 days) gives Aug 16.
The number of registered postcards in 2024 fluctuates from 89k to 105k per week.
The curve is complex, strongly related to the time of year, quarter of the year, beginning and end of the month.
In 2024, this curve looks like this. Perhaps this will be interesting to you, friends, and will help in predicting the moment of passing the next millionth levels.
Three quarters done, one quarter to go
249,920 to go, to be exact
I’m still fascinated by the ‘low’ number of cards traveling - students? schools? northern summer? users saving for travel-mode but can’t find any stamps (again, looking at you, Italy)
As usual, I stick with my original guess, though I can imagine it might happen some few dozens hours earlier
20.08.2024
20:20 UTC
a card from DE to FR (showing future Euro-Olympic soccer doublewinning team (that would be Spain, as we know now))
The number of travelling cards has fallen this year. I suspect its at least partially connected to longer travelling times affecting major playing countries
Russia used to be approx 30 days now 60 plus
USA used to be 21 days now 30 plus
Germany often 7 days now regularly 21 Days
Until cards are delivered slots don’t open up so peoples progress is reduced/takes longer to grow available travelling slots
Combine that with cost increases/affordability…
It was ~364000 cards traveling exactly a year ago, today 378000. So I guess (see) that it’s more a seasonal effect (we also had more in northern spring and probably will have more again in northern autumn).
I know that limited slots are annoying at the beginning, but we know from discussions here and surveys that not all users use all their slots, esp. after having a certain amount available. So slots may be one factor, but not the only one.
(to stop it before the start, please remember that there are better places to discuss ‘slot-distribution’ than here in the traditional countdown game)
This is what we have now.
And the close look.
My current math model indicates that The Moment of Truth comes on 16 Aug 16:48 (UTC).
But I stand by my second prediction – 16/08/24 Fri 15:11.
We have 25 predictions, two of them are corrected.
| Name | Axis X | Date & Time (DD/MM/YY DDD HH:MM) |
|---|---|---|
| @Verenai | 6 976,7660 | 06/08/24 Tue 18:23 |
| @ChocCrossie | 6 977,2708 | 07/08/24 Wed 06:30 |
| @Fenja1987 | 6 981,4167 | 11/08/24 Sun 10:00 |
| @nnniiina | 6 984,3806 | 14/08/24 Wed 09:08 |
| @Katch | 6 985,5382 | 15/08/24 Thu 12:55 |
| @reiselustig | 6 985,9319 | 15/08/24 Thu 22:22 |
| @greenskull | 6 986,6326 | 16/08/24 Fri 15:11 – Ok (green area) |
| @xxxxyyyyzzzz | 6 986,8729 | 16/08/24 Fri 20:57 – Ok (green area) |
| @alsace_girl | 6 986,9792 | 16/08/24 Fri 23:30 – Ok (green area) |
| @Florallle | 6 987,4285 | 17/08/24 Sat 10:17 |
| @tesc | 6 987,5000 | 17/08/24 Sat 12:00 |
| @VanCity95 | 6 988,8333 | 18/08/24 Sun 20:00 |
| @vesselland | 6 989,0833 | 19/08/24 Mon 02:00 |
| @Silpa | 6 989,4271 | 19/08/24 Mon 10:15 |
| @Yvonnche | 6 989,5000 | 19/08/24 Mon 12:00 |
| @GrauBunt | 6 989,5889 | 19/08/24 Mon 14:08 |
| @Stevyy | 6 990,8472 | 20/08/24 Tue 20:20 |
| @SchusterElse | 6 990,8861 | 20/08/24 Tue 21:16 |
| @Telopea | 6 991,1667 | 21/08/24 Wed 04:00 |
| @artdavinci | 6 991,7604 | 21/08/24 Wed 18:15 |
| @Cerimoon | 6 992,1368 | 22/08/24 Thu 03:17 |
| @emotional | 6 994,2917 | 24/08/24 Sat 07:00 |
| @P05tkatze | 6 995,0590 | 25/08/24 Sun 01:25 |
| @LyudmilaS | 6 995,7917 | 25/08/24 Sun 19:00 |
| @Hemang | 6 997,7917 | 27/08/24 Tue 19:00 |
Just under two weeks remain until the cherished moment.
82% of the way has been covered, only about 180 thousand postcards remain to be registered.
If anyone wants to update/clarify their prediction, feel free to do so. Just make the following prediction in a new comment in the thread.
In the final ranking of diviners, I will choose your best prediction, for which the ratio of the error to the distance to the Moment of Truth (the moment of crossing the 78 million level) will be minimal (the best). Therefore, you do not risk anything.
But, despite the fact that it is easier to reliably predict the Moment of Truth as you approach it, the impact of the error will increase.
So if you guess more than you calculate, your earlier predictions will likely be better in terms of error relative to the distance from which the prediction was made.
And I will say from my experience that predictions of the last week never give advantages, since even an error of only three hours in relation to the distance of 1 week will be greater than an error of one day in relation to the distance of 2 months. Except in cases, of course, where the error of the first prediction in the beginning of the countdown is several days.
My guess is 17. August 2024 - 14:12
Just in case, friends, I will provide a list of the latest milestones with dates and times and an indication of the days that have passed since the previous milestone.
I indicated the 78 million milestone presumably, since we have not passed it yet.
This will give a hint on how to predict more or less accurately the date and time of the next milestone.
| Countdown | Date and time (UTC) | Days after previous |
|---|---|---|
| 61 000 000 | 02 Apr 21, Fri, 00:57 | 66.11 |
| 62 000 000 | 08 Jun 21, Tue, 00:01 | 66.96 |
| 63 000 000 | 18 Aug 21, Wed, 07:12 | 71.30 |
| 64 000 000 | 26 Oct 21, Tue, 13:07 | 69.25 |
| 65 000 000 | 04 Jan 22, Tue, 20:39 | 70.31 |
| 66 000 000 | 09 Mar 22, Wed, 19:44 | 63.96 |
| 67 000 000 | 25 May 22, Wed, 13:11 | 76.73 |
| 68 000 000 | 10 Aug 22, Wed, 18:13 | 77.21 |
| 69 000 000 | 22 Oct 22, Sat, 19:18 | 73.05 |
| 70 000 000 | 04 Jan 23, Wed, 23:36 | 74.18 |
| 71 000 000 | 14 Mar 23, Tue, 12:33 | 68.54 |
| 72 000 000 | 28 May 23, Sun, 13:38 | 75.05 |
| 73 000 000 | 12 Aug 23, Sat, 19:36 | 76.25 |
| 74 000 000 | 25 Oct 23, Wed, 19:36 | 74.00 |
| 75 000 000 | 08 Jan 24, Mon, 15:14 | 74.82 |
| 76 000 000 | 18 Mar 24, Mon, 20:33 | 70.22 |
| 77 000 000 | 02 Jun 24, Sun, 08:59 | 75.52 |
| 78 000 000 | 16 Aug 24, Fri, 15:00 | 75.25 – supposably |
Obviously, the number of days between milestones fluctuates around 74 days and increases.
With an accuracy of ±7 days, you can calculate the number of days from the previous milestone to the next one using the formula:
(Number of days) = 0.43 * (Milestone Number) + 42.25
That is, for milestone #78 (78 million), the number of days after passing milestone #77 (77 million) will be:
Number of days = 0.43 * 78 + 42.25 = 75.79
Add this number of days to the date and time of the previous milestone and get:
(02 Jun 24, Sun, 08:59) + 75.79 = 17 Aug 24, Sat, 03:56 ±7 days
Which is pretty close to the expected date of reaching the 78th milestone we are waiting for.
But there is no guarantee that this formula will work after passing the 80 million level, as the trend seems to change its properties.
I hope this was interesting and informative for you.
So, we have 26 predictions, 2 of them are corrected.
Our Collective Unconscious indicates that the Moment of Truth is:
Mean = 18.08.24 Sun 11:30
Median = 18.08.24 Sun 23:00
Mode = 18.08.24 Sun 18:17
But it seems to me that it is hopelessly mistaken
And everything will happen a little over 2 days earlier.
The intrigue is growing.
We only have about 169,000 postcards left to register.
And we register approximately 93,000 ±6,000 cards per week.
I’m making a new prediction! August 17th 11:15
The Easter Island idol suggests that everything will happen on August 16 at approximately 13:00.
Which is very close to my second prediction.
We only have about 109 thousand postcards left to register.
Things do seem to have picked up this week… will watch closely what the weekend does
<100k to go
