Like Floralle mentions we are half-way there. While we don’t see northern summer yet in registrations, I take the traveling cards as hint for the seasonal slowdown. That’s why I stick with my origin guess (I would have anyway, but now there’s even proof and reason )
495,987 to go
20.08.2024
20:20 UTC
a card from DE to FR (showing future Euro-Olympic soccer doublewinning team)
If my sums are right, that was 38 days till the halfway point. 38 days from yesterday takes us to 17th August. Of course, that’s assuming there’s no slowing down, as @Stevyy says. Or indeed, speeding up!
My model indicates that the moment of truth will occur on August 16, 2024 Fri at 12:42 pm, which is very close to my second prediction. So for now I’m sticking with my second prediction.
I have highlighted areas that have different chances of catching the moment of truth. Perhaps this will encourage someone to adjust their bid.
So, we have 25 predictions. One of them has been corrected.
Mean = 18.08.24 Sun 15:21
Median = 19.08.24 Mon 02:00
Mode = 19.08.24 Mon 00:14
But I assume that it will happen a few days earlier
So, we have 25 predictions. Two of them has been corrected.
Mean = 18.08.24 Sun 12:21
Median = 19.08.24 Mon 02:00
Mode = 18.08.24 Sun 20:14
But according to my trend model, everything will happen a couple of days earlier.
Calculation according to the current model gives the Moment of Truth Aug 16 Fri, 13:19 (UTC).
72.7% of the way has already been covered.
There are 273,440 postcards left to register.
This will take just under 3 weeks.
PS
Currently, ~98,000 postcards are registered each week (every 7 days). But this value is decreasing and in three weeks it will fall to about ~93,000 postcards per week.
If we take some average of ~95,000 per week, then for the remaining 273,440 postcards it will take (273,440 / 95,000) = 2.9 weeks, that is, about ~20 days.
(July 27 + 20 days) gives Aug 16.
The number of registered postcards in 2024 fluctuates from 89k to 105k per week.
The curve is complex, strongly related to the time of year, quarter of the year, beginning and end of the month.
In 2024, this curve looks like this. Perhaps this will be interesting to you, friends, and will help in predicting the moment of passing the next millionth levels.
I’m still fascinated by the ‘low’ number of cards traveling - students? schools? northern summer? users saving for travel-mode but can’t find any stamps (again, looking at you, Italy)
As usual, I stick with my original guess, though I can imagine it might happen some few dozens hours earlier
20.08.2024
20:20 UTC
a card from DE to FR (showing future Euro-Olympic soccer doublewinning team (that would be Spain, as we know now))
The number of travelling cards has fallen this year. I suspect its at least partially connected to longer travelling times affecting major playing countries
Russia used to be approx 30 days now 60 plus
USA used to be 21 days now 30 plus
Germany often 7 days now regularly 21 Days
Until cards are delivered slots don’t open up so peoples progress is reduced/takes longer to grow available travelling slots
Combine that with cost increases/affordability…
It was ~364000 cards traveling exactly a year ago, today 378000. So I guess (see) that it’s more a seasonal effect (we also had more in northern spring and probably will have more again in northern autumn).
I know that limited slots are annoying at the beginning, but we know from discussions here and surveys that not all users use all their slots, esp. after having a certain amount available. So slots may be one factor, but not the only one.
(to stop it before the start, please remember that there are better places to discuss ‘slot-distribution’ than here in the traditional countdown game)
If anyone wants to update/clarify their prediction, feel free to do so. Just make the following prediction in a new comment in the thread.
In the final ranking of diviners, I will choose your best prediction, for which the ratio of the error to the distance to the Moment of Truth (the moment of crossing the 78 million level) will be minimal (the best). Therefore, you do not risk anything.
But, despite the fact that it is easier to reliably predict the Moment of Truth as you approach it, the impact of the error will increase.
So if you guess more than you calculate, your earlier predictions will likely be better in terms of error relative to the distance from which the prediction was made.
And I will say from my experience that predictions of the last week never give advantages, since even an error of only three hours in relation to the distance of 1 week will be greater than an error of one day in relation to the distance of 2 months. Except in cases, of course, where the error of the first prediction in the beginning of the countdown is several days.
Just in case, friends, I will provide a list of the latest milestones with dates and times and an indication of the days that have passed since the previous milestone.
I indicated the 78 million milestone presumably, since we have not passed it yet.
This will give a hint on how to predict more or less accurately the date and time of the next milestone.
Obviously, the number of days between milestones fluctuates around 74 days and increases.
With an accuracy of ±7 days, you can calculate the number of days from the previous milestone to the next one using the formula:
(Number of days) = 0.43 * (Milestone Number) + 42.25
That is, for milestone #78 (78 million), the number of days after passing milestone #77 (77 million) will be:
Number of days = 0.43 * 78 + 42.25 = 75.79
Add this number of days to the date and time of the previous milestone and get:
(02 Jun 24, Sun, 08:59) + 75.79 = 17 Aug 24, Sat, 03:56 ±7 days
Which is pretty close to the expected date of reaching the 78th milestone we are waiting for.
But there is no guarantee that this formula will work after passing the 80 million level, as the trend seems to change its properties.
I hope this was interesting and informative for you.