Countdown to 78 Million Postcards

Some days offline have let me miss the 77th grand finale … still happy that I did well. Hope someone (@mundoo; @meiadeleite :wink: ) can still find out and show us the lucky card.

As for 78, seems like I’m on the joint-aching pessimist side. Some folks will be distracted by Euro and Olympics (and the more severe other events) during the next weeks, and others will plan to send via travel mode, only to find no stamps (IT, I’m looking at you), so northern-summer-slowdown (nosuslod) will be more visible than last year.

My first (and not-to-be-changed) guess is

20.08.2024
20:20 UTC

a card from DE to FR (showing future Euro-Olympic soccer doublewinning team)

9 Likes

@Stevyy Loved how you made “the output of your brain”, respectively those elaborate thoughts visible to the “outside world” :wink:

1 Like

I like birthday dates, so I’m going to be off and guess
August 25th 1:25 am.

(I should probably guess between two birthdays on August 15th at 19:25, but one cannot guess two dates, right?)

4 Likes

Before I read all this, I wanted to guess the 15th of August … it seems I am a bit far off again, but I stick to it :slight_smile:

15th August 22:22 UTC

5 Likes

I will assume that this will happen on August 25th at 19:00

4 Likes

There are 20 predictions:

Mean = 17.08.24 Sat 18:31
Median = 17.08.24 Sat 11:08
Mode = 17.08.24 Sat 21:09

5 Likes

This is what we have at the moment.

Left to Right X Axis:

Name X Axis Date & Time (DD/MM/YY DDD HH:MM)
@Verenai 6976,7660 06/08/24 Tue 18:23
@ChocCrossie 6977,2708 07/08/24 Wed 06:30
@Fenja1987 6981,4167 11/08/24 Sun 10:00
@nnniiina 6984,3806 14/08/24 Wed 09:08
@Katch 6985,5382 15/08/24 Thu 12:55
@reiselustig 6985,9319 15/08/24 Thu 22:22
@xxxxyyyyzzzz 6986,8729 16/08/24 Fri 20:57
@alsace_girl 6986,9792 16/08/24 Fri 23:30
@Florallle 6987,4285 17/08/24 Sat 10:17
@tesc 6987,5000 17/08/24 Sat 12:00
@greenskull 6987,6750 17/08/24 Sat 16:12
@vesselland 6989,0833 19/08/24 Mon 02:00
@Silpa 6989,4271 19/08/24 Mon 10:15 – corrected due to mistakes
@GrauBunt 6989,5889 19/08/24 Mon 14:08
@Stevyy 6990,8472 20/08/24 Tue 20:20
@SchusterElse 6990,8861 20/08/24 Tue 21:16
@Yvonnche 6992,6250 22/08/24 Thu 15:00
@P05tkatze 6995,0590 25/08/24 Sun 01:25
@LyudmilaS 6995,7917 25/08/24 Sun 19:00
@Hemang 6997,7917 27/08/24 Tue 19:00
10 Likes

@greenskull My time is incorrect, it was 10:15 not 00:15 BUT now I realized I made a mistake at the date! My own notes were 19/08/24 Mon 10:15 so I will now chance it to that.

4 Likes

Thank you so much for tracking and giving us a nice statistics work on our guesses :smiling_face_with_three_hearts:

5 Likes

Ok, my mistake. I have just changed the time. Do I need to change the date to 19/08/24?
16/08/24 is much better, my opinion.

3 Likes

@greenskull Yes, please change it to 19/08/24, I have a system :rofl:

4 Likes

Corrected. I have checked all others just in case, look Ok.

Mean = 17.08.24 Sat 22:37
Median = 17.08.24 Sat 14:06
Mode = 18.08.24 Sun 03:53

3 Likes

It took 16 days to add 200,000 postcards to the total.

6 Likes

I predict it will happen August 21st at 6:15 pm

4 Likes

I may be wrong again, but I’m hoping with momma’s luck - August 24th (her bday!) will be the next mil.

My guess date is

24/08/24 - 07:00

3 Likes

The math model points to Aug 17, 10:00. It is quite close to my prediction, so I leave it unchanged.

6 Likes

I predict it will happen 22AUG2024 - 3:17.

3 Likes

If we extrapolate from my mathematical model, then the moment of truth will come on Aug 16 Fri, 17:47, which is not so far from my prediction (Aug 17 Sat, 16:12).
Therefore, I will not correct it for now. Since I admit that the intersection of the model with the level of 78 million will move closer to my prediction soon.
Zero Line is the zero level of the trend relative to which the trend curve oscillates.

All bets on this graph:

Name Axis X Date & Time (DD/MM/YY DDD HH:MM)
@Verenai 6 976,766 06/08/24 Tue 18:23
@ChocCrossie 6 977,271 07/08/24 Wed 06:30
@Fenja1987 6 981,417 11/08/24 Sun 10:00
@nnniiina 6 984,381 14/08/24 Wed 09:08
@Katch 6 985,538 15/08/24 Thu 12:55
@reiselustig 6 985,932 15/08/24 Thu 22:22
@xxxxyyyyzzzz 6 986,873 16/08/24 Fri 20:57
@alsace_girl 6 986,979 16/08/24 Fri 23:30
@Florallle 6 987,428 17/08/24 Sat 10:17
@tesc 6 987,500 17/08/24 Sat 12:00
@greenskull 6 987,675 17/08/24 Sat 16:12
@vesselland 6 989,083 19/08/24 Mon 02:00
@Silpa 6 989,427 19/08/24 Mon 10:15
@GrauBunt 6 989,589 19/08/24 Mon 14:08
@Stevyy 6 990,847 20/08/24 Tue 20:20
@SchusterElse 6 990,886 20/08/24 Tue 21:16
@artdavinci 6 991,760 21/08/24 Wed 18:15
@Cerimoon 6 992,137 22/08/24 Thu 03:17
@Yvonnche 6 992,625 22/08/24 Thu 15:00
@emotional 6 994,292 24/08/24 Sat 07:00
@P05tkatze 6 995,059 25/08/24 Sun 01:25
@LyudmilaS 6 995,792 25/08/24 Sun 19:00
@Hemang 6 997,792 27/08/24 Tue 19:00

So, we have 23 predictions. And our Collective Unconscious indicates:
Mean = 18.08.24 Sun 13:36
Median = 19.08.24 Mon 02:00
Mode = 18.08.24 Sun 22:26

11 Likes

My guess is:
Wednesday, 21. August, at 04:00

2 Likes

Half way there. Someone else can do the maths, or I will in the morning. Off to sleep now.

9 Likes