Stevyy
June 6, 2024, 10:48am
21
Some days offline have let me miss the 77th grand finale … still happy that I did well. Hope someone (@mundoo ; @meiadeleite ) can still find out and show us the lucky card.
As for 78, seems like I’m on the joint-aching pessimist side. Some folks will be distracted by Euro and Olympics (and the more severe other events) during the next weeks, and others will plan to send via travel mode, only to find no stamps (IT, I’m looking at you), so northern-summer-slowdown (nosuslod) will be more visible than last year.
My first (and not-to-be-changed) guess is
20.08.2024
20:20 UTC
a card from DE to FR (showing future Euro-Olympic soccer doublewinning team)
9 Likes
@Stevyy Loved how you made “the output of your brain”, respectively those elaborate thoughts visible to the “outside world”
1 Like
I like birthday dates, so I’m going to be off and guess
August 25th 1:25 am.
(I should probably guess between two birthdays on August 15th at 19:25, but one cannot guess two dates, right?)
4 Likes
Before I read all this, I wanted to guess the 15th of August … it seems I am a bit far off again, but I stick to it
15th August 22:22 UTC
5 Likes
I will assume that this will happen on August 25th at 19:00
4 Likes
There are 20 predictions:
Mean = 17.08.24 Sat 18:31
Median = 17.08.24 Sat 11:08
Mode = 17.08.24 Sat 21:09
5 Likes
This is what we have at the moment.
Left to Right X Axis:
Name
X Axis
Date & Time (DD/MM/YY DDD HH:MM)
@Verenai
6976,7660
06/08/24 Tue 18:23
@ChocCrossie
6977,2708
07/08/24 Wed 06:30
@Fenja1987
6981,4167
11/08/24 Sun 10:00
@nnniiina
6984,3806
14/08/24 Wed 09:08
@Katch
6985,5382
15/08/24 Thu 12:55
@reiselustig
6985,9319
15/08/24 Thu 22:22
@xxxxyyyyzzzz
6986,8729
16/08/24 Fri 20:57
@alsace_girl
6986,9792
16/08/24 Fri 23:30
@Florallle
6987,4285
17/08/24 Sat 10:17
@tesc
6987,5000
17/08/24 Sat 12:00
@greenskull
6987,6750
17/08/24 Sat 16:12
@vesselland
6989,0833
19/08/24 Mon 02:00
@Silpa
6989,4271
19/08/24 Mon 10:15 – corrected due to mistakes
@GrauBunt
6989,5889
19/08/24 Mon 14:08
@Stevyy
6990,8472
20/08/24 Tue 20:20
@SchusterElse
6990,8861
20/08/24 Tue 21:16
@Yvonnche
6992,6250
22/08/24 Thu 15:00
@P05tkatze
6995,0590
25/08/24 Sun 01:25
@LyudmilaS
6995,7917
25/08/24 Sun 19:00
@Hemang
6997,7917
27/08/24 Tue 19:00
10 Likes
Silpa
June 13, 2024, 11:27am
28
@greenskull My time is incorrect, it was 10:15 not 00:15 BUT now I realized I made a mistake at the date! My own notes were 19/08/24 Mon 10:15 so I will now chance it to that.
4 Likes
Hemang
June 13, 2024, 2:41pm
29
Thank you so much for tracking and giving us a nice statistics work on our guesses
5 Likes
Ok, my mistake. I have just changed the time. Do I need to change the date to 19/08/24?
16/08/24 is much better, my opinion.
3 Likes
Silpa
June 13, 2024, 6:40pm
31
@greenskull Yes, please change it to 19/08/24, I have a system
4 Likes
Corrected. I have checked all others just in case, look Ok.
Mean = 17.08.24 Sat 22:37
Median = 17.08.24 Sat 14:06
Mode = 18.08.24 Sun 03:53
3 Likes
It took 16 days to add 200,000 postcards to the total.
6 Likes
I predict it will happen August 21st at 6:15 pm
4 Likes
I may be wrong again, but I’m hoping with momma’s luck - August 24th (her bday!) will be the next mil.
My guess date is
24/08/24 - 07:00
3 Likes
The math model points to Aug 17, 10:00. It is quite close to my prediction, so I leave it unchanged.
6 Likes
I predict it will happen 22AUG2024 - 3:17.
3 Likes
If we extrapolate from my mathematical model, then the moment of truth will come on Aug 16 Fri, 17:47, which is not so far from my prediction (Aug 17 Sat, 16:12).
Therefore, I will not correct it for now. Since I admit that the intersection of the model with the level of 78 million will move closer to my prediction soon.
Zero Line is the zero level of the trend relative to which the trend curve oscillates.
All bets on this graph:
Name
Axis X
Date & Time (DD/MM/YY DDD HH:MM)
@Verenai
6 976,766
06/08/24 Tue 18:23
@ChocCrossie
6 977,271
07/08/24 Wed 06:30
@Fenja1987
6 981,417
11/08/24 Sun 10:00
@nnniiina
6 984,381
14/08/24 Wed 09:08
@Katch
6 985,538
15/08/24 Thu 12:55
@reiselustig
6 985,932
15/08/24 Thu 22:22
@xxxxyyyyzzzz
6 986,873
16/08/24 Fri 20:57
@alsace_girl
6 986,979
16/08/24 Fri 23:30
@Florallle
6 987,428
17/08/24 Sat 10:17
@tesc
6 987,500
17/08/24 Sat 12:00
@greenskull
6 987,675
17/08/24 Sat 16:12
@vesselland
6 989,083
19/08/24 Mon 02:00
@Silpa
6 989,427
19/08/24 Mon 10:15
@GrauBunt
6 989,589
19/08/24 Mon 14:08
@Stevyy
6 990,847
20/08/24 Tue 20:20
@SchusterElse
6 990,886
20/08/24 Tue 21:16
@artdavinci
6 991,760
21/08/24 Wed 18:15
@Cerimoon
6 992,137
22/08/24 Thu 03:17
@Yvonnche
6 992,625
22/08/24 Thu 15:00
@emotional
6 994,292
24/08/24 Sat 07:00
@P05tkatze
6 995,059
25/08/24 Sun 01:25
@LyudmilaS
6 995,792
25/08/24 Sun 19:00
@Hemang
6 997,792
27/08/24 Tue 19:00
So, we have 23 predictions. And our Collective Unconscious indicates:
Mean = 18.08.24 Sun 13:36
Median = 19.08.24 Mon 02:00
Mode = 18.08.24 Sun 22:26
11 Likes
My guess is:
Wednesday, 21. August, at 04:00
2 Likes
Half way there. Someone else can do the maths, or I will in the morning. Off to sleep now.
9 Likes