Countdown to 78 Million Postcards

Some days offline have let me miss the 77th grand finale … still happy that I did well. Hope someone (@mundoo; @meiadeleite :wink: ) can still find out and show us the lucky card.

As for 78, seems like I’m on the joint-aching pessimist side. Some folks will be distracted by Euro and Olympics (and the more severe other events) during the next weeks, and others will plan to send via travel mode, only to find no stamps (IT, I’m looking at you), so northern-summer-slowdown (nosuslod) will be more visible than last year.

My first (and not-to-be-changed) guess is

20.08.2024
20:20 UTC

a card from DE to FR (showing future Euro-Olympic soccer doublewinning team)

9 Likes

@Stevyy Loved how you made “the output of your brain”, respectively those elaborate thoughts visible to the “outside world” :wink:

1 Like

I like birthday dates, so I’m going to be off and guess
August 25th 1:25 am.

(I should probably guess between two birthdays on August 15th at 19:25, but one cannot guess two dates, right?)

4 Likes

Before I read all this, I wanted to guess the 15th of August … it seems I am a bit far off again, but I stick to it :slight_smile:

15th August 22:22 UTC

5 Likes

I will assume that this will happen on August 25th at 19:00

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There are 20 predictions:

Mean = 17.08.24 Sat 18:31
Median = 17.08.24 Sat 11:08
Mode = 17.08.24 Sat 21:09

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This is what we have at the moment.

Left to Right X Axis:

Name X Axis Date & Time (DD/MM/YY DDD HH:MM)
@Verenai 6976,7660 06/08/24 Tue 18:23
@ChocCrossie 6977,2708 07/08/24 Wed 06:30
@Fenja1987 6981,4167 11/08/24 Sun 10:00
@nnniiina 6984,3806 14/08/24 Wed 09:08
@Katch 6985,5382 15/08/24 Thu 12:55
@reiselustig 6985,9319 15/08/24 Thu 22:22
@xxxxyyyyzzzz 6986,8729 16/08/24 Fri 20:57
@alsace_girl 6986,9792 16/08/24 Fri 23:30
@Florallle 6987,4285 17/08/24 Sat 10:17
@tesc 6987,5000 17/08/24 Sat 12:00
@greenskull 6987,6750 17/08/24 Sat 16:12
@vesselland 6989,0833 19/08/24 Mon 02:00
@Silpa 6989,4271 19/08/24 Mon 10:15 – corrected due to mistakes
@GrauBunt 6989,5889 19/08/24 Mon 14:08
@Stevyy 6990,8472 20/08/24 Tue 20:20
@SchusterElse 6990,8861 20/08/24 Tue 21:16
@Yvonnche 6992,6250 22/08/24 Thu 15:00
@P05tkatze 6995,0590 25/08/24 Sun 01:25
@LyudmilaS 6995,7917 25/08/24 Sun 19:00
@Hemang 6997,7917 27/08/24 Tue 19:00
10 Likes

@greenskull My time is incorrect, it was 10:15 not 00:15 BUT now I realized I made a mistake at the date! My own notes were 19/08/24 Mon 10:15 so I will now chance it to that.

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Thank you so much for tracking and giving us a nice statistics work on our guesses :smiling_face_with_three_hearts:

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Ok, my mistake. I have just changed the time. Do I need to change the date to 19/08/24?
16/08/24 is much better, my opinion.

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@greenskull Yes, please change it to 19/08/24, I have a system :rofl:

4 Likes

Corrected. I have checked all others just in case, look Ok.

Mean = 17.08.24 Sat 22:37
Median = 17.08.24 Sat 14:06
Mode = 18.08.24 Sun 03:53

3 Likes

It took 16 days to add 200,000 postcards to the total.

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I predict it will happen August 21st at 6:15 pm

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I may be wrong again, but I’m hoping with momma’s luck - August 24th (her bday!) will be the next mil.

My guess date is

24/08/24 - 07:00

3 Likes

The math model points to Aug 17, 10:00. It is quite close to my prediction, so I leave it unchanged.

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I predict it will happen 22AUG2024 - 3:17.

1 Like