I‘ll go for 18th March, 17:15 - for no special reason.
3 Likes
I’ll go with 19.03 at 2pm UTC (my birthday - time and date).
3 Likes
Before reading the other suggestions I will go for March 16th, 16:03 UTC 
3 Likes
Without reading these and based off some loose estimates I’d say the evening of March 20th.
20th March, 23:00 UTC is my guess
(If anyone is wondering, there is a lot of estimating, rounding and gut feeling…
I guessed the average for cards at the moment is around 600/hr. That’s 14400 a day. I thought I’d round that to 14,000. 1,000,000/14000 ~ 71.5 days. 71.5 days on from the last one would be (roughly) the evening of 20/03 (unless I miscounted).)
3 Likes
We have 18 predictions.
Mean = 18.03.24 Mon 16:53
Median = 20.03.24 Wed 06:30
Mode = 19.03.24 Tue 23:42
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The first graph in this countdown.
This is the still unclear picture.
I have been monitoring the trend since September 1, 2019. Here is the data that I recorded from this date. Perhaps the data will be of interest to Countdown participants to build your own hypotheses.
And here I published moments when the trend crossed million levels. This is also valuable data for making forecasts.
Add there 75 000 000 08.01.24 Mon 15:14 of last Countdown.
4 Likes
Based on my own assessments, I say 21 March 2024 at 15:26 UTC. 
4 Likes
Just for the fun of it:
24th March 2024, 7:28 UTC
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My guess is 28. March 2024 at 14:18 UTC
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I say March 25th at 9 pm UTC
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We have 23 predictions.
Mean = 19.03.24 Tue 04:05
Median = 21.03.24 Thu 02:44
Mode = 20.03.24 Wed 17:37
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Now everything looks like this.
In my personal opinion, the five predictions are a little far from the most likely values:
@Jarana (01/03/24 20:24)
@RowanP (03/03/24 20:09)
@Sandhurst (09/03/24 15:20)
@ChocCrossie (14/03/24 14:14)
@Dar (01/04/24 12:00)
But in any case, it is entirely at the discretion of the participants. Anyone can make a new, clarifying prediction whenever they wish.
4 Likes
Just wondering, @greenskull, how come that 29th Feb. is not too far off? 
3 Likes
My mistake, I admit. But the graph is Ok.
It was a test of attentiveness
These five predictions seem to be too far from the most likely value:
@nnniiina (29/02/24 04:07)
@Jarana (01/03/24 20:24)
@RowanP (03/03/24 20:09)
@Sandhurst (09/03/24 15:20)
and
@Dar (01/04/24 12:00)
And these two predictions look moderately far from the most likely value:
@ChocCrossie (14/03/24 14:14)
@Herbstsommerwind (28/03/24 14:18)
4 Likes
I’m going with my birthday - March 23, 2024 16:00
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It’s the leap day, maybe it doesn’t exist! 
2 Likes
Of course, leap day exists
There is an opinion, and this is indicated by various signs, that the cherished day will come about three weeks later.
Anything can happen. I do not rule out that everything will happen on Leap Day. But if we were playing for money, I would refrain from such a bet
2 Likes
In about 2 weeks, namely on February 12 at 23:10, we will pass halfway.
There are 24 predictions:
Mean = 19.03.24 Tue 08:35
Median = 21.03.24 Thu 09:02
Mode = 20.03.24 Wed 23:00
2 Likes
It’s 3 weeks today since the 75 million mark was passed and we seem to have regularly registered 100,000 postcards per week since. It’ll be interesting to see if we continue at the same rate. If we do, we should pass the 76 million on 18th March. Though, personally, I think things might slow down a little.
7 Likes
