šŸŽÆ Countdown to 70 million registered cards

Postcrossing General Topics
21

Itā€™s nice to see you all so optimistic - maybe itā€™s just my aching thumb that makes me more reluctant. Well, weā€™ll see which factors will dominate, the ypparc ones (wars, unrest, inflation, pandemic, strikes, energy shortage, ā€¦ ) or the seasonal ones (more northern indoor time, end-of-year-festive-mood, German charity (where users spend thousands of euros to make deutsche post give hundreds (not to mention the extra-burden for postal worker amidst high season) (sorry, I had to)) .)

967,972 to go

As announced in the recent countdown, my guess is personal anyway, I go for

22.01.2023
01:22 UTC

a card from SE to VEn

5 Likes
22

Taking into account the 12th prediction from Stefan, we have:
Mean (Average) = 05.01.23 10:59
Median = 05.01.23 17:20
Mode = 05.01.23 01:10

That is, the collective unconscious instructs on January 05, 2023.
Letā€™s see :slight_smile:

2 Likes
23

100% agree, it is not really reasonable at allā€¦

24

As I am German, I predict that the 70 millions shall pop up on Friday December 30th.
I participate in a regular prediction game and very rarely predict correctly.
So please dont believe me.
Heinrich

8 Likes
25

Been a while since I made any prediction heheā€¦I think weā€™re likely to reach 70 million near January 18th at 17:29 UTC

3 Likes
26

Iā€™m going for 21st Dec 2022 20.00hrs

3 Likes
27

complete shot in the darkā€¦ 28 dec 2022 at 17:33 UTC

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28

:boom: January 2 2023 03:22 UTC From USA to GER and it will be a Christmas themed card(Santa Claus and the reindeers flying over a chimney). :boom:

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29

My maths says 05 Jan 2023 at about 10pm, but I donā€™t have any idea how to compensate for the German cards for good causes, the general issues with post as we approach Christmas, and the holiday season. So arbitrarily I am going to add a delay until 06 Jan 2023 at 17:00 UTC.

:crossed_fingers:

3 Likes
30

There were 116,706 at one week (and one hour) with 444 received that hour which has me figuratively biting my fingernails about my guess.

2 Likes
31

As far as I remember the rules you can adjust your guessā€¦ several times even.

4 Likes
32

Let me remind you that UTC time does not change to winter time.
If you want to know what UTC time it is, just click on this link.

33

I will assume that this will happen on January 4, 2023 at 18:13 :slightly_smiling_face:

4 Likes
34

Half-way there. The WPD-madness did fade, just as expected, the end-of-year-slowdown will follow. So I assume the weekly average will shrink some more, though not super-dramatic. At least not dramatic enough for my original guess, which I wonā€™t change, nonetheless. Youā€™ll never know.
So we are at

499,821 to go

22.01.2023
01:22 UTC

a card from SE to VEn

4 Likes
35

That seems to have come around astonishingly quickly.

1 Like
36

My guess is
5. 1. 2023
00:48

5 Likes
37

Halfway passed.
Mathematics says that the Moment of Truth will come on January 04, 2023.

70mio_221128
70mio_221128840Ɨ520 62.9 KB

However, from about December 20, 2022, a dramatic decline in Postcrossing activity will begin, which will last until January 10, 2023. The slowdown in the pace of the game by this point can be about 2 days.
Therefore, I will leave my previous (and 1st) forecast in force.

If we assume that the Moment of Truth will come exactly as @Florallle predicted (6th January, 13:06 UTC), then the angular deviations of the participantā€™s predictions will be as follows.

Participant of Countdown Average Angular Deviation Theta, (Ā°)
@Florallle 0,00
@xxxxyyyyzzzz 0,14
@ChocCrossie 0,23
@nnniiina 0,58
@Lena1984 0,70
@greenskull 0,88
@LyudmilaS 1,67
@shanx 2,15
@Mosshumla 2,17
@Herbstsommerwind 2,96
@GrauBunt 3,34
@shootingstar7 3,69
@PostScript_Sam 3,77
@am1937a 5,69
@Silvia_L 6,06
@kristencat 7,35
@manuchka 9,81
@sonataca 9,86
@Stevyy 11,97
@tesc 12,89

But, of course, this is just a guess and everything can change.
By the way, anyone can update their forecast at any time they wish.

6 Likes
38

Iā€™ll stay with mine. According to your calculations itā€™s the best guess I made so far. :grin:

Did you calculate as well, that all the German postcrossers plan to send cards like crazy during December? :wink: (because of German Post giving some of the money from the stamps for a good course)

2 Likes
39

I counted it inā€¦ :crazy_face: and stay with my guess, too.

2 Likes
40

My estimate for the time is:

6th January 2023 at 12:30

2 Likes