🎯 Countdown to 64 million cards registered

If nobody wants to start the next 64 mio countdown thread, then with your permission, I’ll start it.

For beginners, I will explain that in some time the total number of postcards registered (=received) will reach 64 million. In the thread of this countdown, we need to make predictions about the time when it will happen and time to time to refine these predictions.

We have a counter of the current received postcards at the moment on the Postcrossing main page in the Postcrossing block in numbers and in the Received postcards line:
https://www.postcrossing.com
And some statistics by months are also here:
https://www.postcrossing.com/stats/postcards

Then your intuition, or Excel, or the Crystal Magic Ball starts to work.

We are all in different time zones, so it is better please to indicate the date and time in UTC format:

Let’s go!

So, my initial prediction is
03.11.21 16:09 (UTC).

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With such a pessimistic guess you should rename to blues-skull :stuck_out_tongue: :crying_cat_face: :laughing: (not that world headlines don’t produce plenty of reasons to feel a bit down)

I go in the opposite direction: end of northern summer = more time at home + postcard day + world post day → a slight increase in cards sent; only question: how long will world-postcard-day-cards travel?

953,114 to go
22.10.2021
10:22 UTC

a card from CA to RE

See you at the halftime adaption

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27 October 2021 10:10 UTC

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Just math.

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Let’s make an early guess for once !

19th October, my birthday :wink:
12:21 UTC
FR to CH

Wonder if there’ll be a slowdown due to Germans saving slots for the December charity campaign (if it happens this year)…

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I guess, most of us start to save slots in November, because 25% of our cards to be sent will go to Germany anyway… and most of the time we also want to send many postcards for world postcard day :slight_smile: And… we are also "hunting " the 11 Mio postcard sent from Germany - so quite a few reasons to be optimistic…

I guess 21.10.21 because it is a nice date and the time will be of course 21:21 UTC

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I think there will be a slowdown, but I guess it will start in November.

My guess is Nov. 1 at 16:24 UTC DE to US (or vice versa) and I hope to achieve the 3rd Magic Mandala.

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I’m thinking early as well, so 23 October at 10.23.

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Nice start! We have got already 7 predictions!
If we assume that the Moment of Truth is exactly the middle between Stefan’s initial prediction and mine, then the list of divinations looks like this :slight_smile:

But of course, I don’t know for certain the moment of reaching the 64 million milestone. Time will tell :slight_smile:
Therefore, the picture will change. And in particular, it will change with the next predictions of the participants.

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I quess it will happen on October 26 at 11:26 pm. And it will be a postcard from US to DE :blush:

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Stefan (@Stevyy ), do you know what caused such a powerful and dynamic rise in activity from the end of July (starting from July 25) to this day?
It looks anomalous for this time of the year and introduces an error in the calculations.

Alternatively, it can be seen as a recovery of normal activity after the recession from July 01 to July 25.
And it looks like your optimism is following this scenario.

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My forecast for next months:

Per month Total
August 425 880 63 190 654
September 387 317 63 577 971
October 385 083 63 963 054
November 389 379 64 352 433
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874.316 to go.

My guess 15. October, 15:10 UTC

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More than a quarter of the way from 63 to 64 million.

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A third of the way is already behind us.

What we have at the moment:

Or it’s the same if we take a closer look.

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The number of postcards being sent across the site has gone right down. I’m wondering if people have started to save slots for World Postcard Day. I have. I want five slots on the day. I already have the first two.

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Halfway done!

I started saving up slots for World Postcard Day several weeks ago, and I am very happy I did because hardly any of my send postcards have been registered lately.

I will correct my prediction.
Let’s say that the Moment of Truth occurs on October 29, 2021 at 00:08 (UTC).
It is ~5.7 days ahead of my initial prediction.

By the way - what happens if somebodys suggestion is right? Is it just for fun?