89 517 cards to go
So it could also happen on Friday, 13th
It’s just a game, right? There is nothing wrong with guessing without maths and have fun.
89 517 cards to go
So it could also happen on Friday, 13th
It’s just a game, right? There is nothing wrong with guessing without maths and have fun.
The cherished moment will come on 11 of November 2020 at 13:00 (UTC) ±1 hour.
My Magic Crystal Balls cannot lie.
80.501 postcards to go
sometime between Nov 11 to Nov 13 sounds accurate unless postal services are further effected in the next few days
My Magic Crystal Ball has caught new elusive vibrations from the future, which makes adjustments to my previous prediction.
So, I am inclined to think that we will pass the level of 59 million even earlier –
on 10 of November at 21:20 (UTC) ±30 minutes.
Speaking of intuition: of course, yes, it’s a game, and my countdown-history shows that my guesses are far from being perfect. And of course, yes, there are factors outside mathematics, like postal delays or national holidays or World Postcard Day, where feeling/intuition might be helpful.
On the other side, in a world of alternative facts where one’s creative intuition talks about injecting bleach, just because, hey, it kills germs on surfaces, why not from the inside too, it’s also okay to consider basic science, simple maths. Or, if one bets completely against the trend, to have a slightly more sophisticated argument than intuition.
Of course, it’s a game, so everybody is invited to guess - no matter whatever that guess is based on. No harm to, no bad feelings for anyone.
To make a long speech short:
44,853 to go
11.11.2020
11:11 UTC
a card from BA to BE
I can definitely say that since 16 of October there has been a steady climb to the regular trend and it perfectly correlates with the activity in the New Forum. It was this rise that confused my Magic Crystal Ball regarding my very first forecast for 12 of November, and I had to revise it twice.
Although, of course, I suspected that some kind of surprise awaited us about 3 weeks before the announcement of the New Forum, when I noticed that Vicki (@Mundoo ) had suddenly changed her giraffes userpic, which had been unchanged for many years
My current prediction is the same as above – 10 of November, 21:20 (UTC) ±30 minutes.
So, 35,250 postcards or 2 days 11 hours 05 minutes left until 59 mio.
Just in case this is my current 59 mio Postcrossing Coundown.
I still see World Postcard Day, not the new forum, as the main factor for the small increase of activity (which happens in autumn anyway). Difficult to calculate is slowdown triggered by new CoVid-restrictions in Europe vs. lack of distractions due to new Covid-restrictions. ( covid
). But that we will probably see in the next countdown.
33,121 to go
11.11.2020
11:11 UTC
a card from BA to BE
this week will be the good one
I think it already happened and we’re stuck in a time continuum…
27 356 cards to go
To be stuck in 2020 … a not-so-nice-fantasy for many.
26,949 to go
11.11.2020
11:11 UTC
a card from BA to BE
Ohhh how cute…but this is really nice, totally cool.
18 848 cards to go
Is tomorrow the day of 59 Million?
My Magic Crystal Ball says – Yes! Tomorrow evening, at 21:20 (UTC) or about it.
Nice track to cheer up
16 528 to go
Something tells me that the 59 millionth postcard will be a postcard from Russia to Germany.
Um, not quite correct. I used several avatars on the old forum. A bouncing kangaroo, the giraffe one, a pink pirate, a sheep saying BAH, kangaroo holding an Australian flag, my dogs, Christmas lights on a reindeer’s antlers,I love Oz and several others.
13,953 left
12,406 to go
11.11.2020
11:11 UTC
BA to BE
with (very generous) 24 potential arrivals, chance that it’s one of mine: 1:500
(as it’s a game, I stick to the luxury of being stubborn. Even when I thought about 10.11. already end of August at the start of this specific countdown)
Our whole life is a game.
The best thing is to always be ourself because the Path is more important than the Goal.
I also got into a situation where my previous prediction was better than the next one. Every time I tell myself - don’t fuss. But I can’t do anything about it.
12,200 left until 59 mio.