If no one minds, then I will initiate this countdown. Ok?
Here we keep track of Postcrossing’s path to the level of 72 million registered postcards.
And we are guessing when the number of registered postcards will reach the 72 millionth level.
Everyone can make as many predictions as they want, at any time.
On the main page of Postcrossing, we can find out how many postcards are registered in the game at the moment.
And here we can see monthly statistics on registered postcards.
These data will help to calculate or guess the moment of passing the level of 72 million.
Please let’s make our predictions of date and time in UTC format.
Well, based on the results of this countdown, we’ll evaluate each prediction as the ratio of the error (between the fact and the prediction) to the distance from which the prediction was made. And we’ll choose the best (smallest) value of all for each participant. And so we’ll determine the most talented (or lucky) diviners.
That is, it is good to make an accurate shot, but it is even better to make it from a longer distance.
Is the German post strike still going ahead? Because if Germany has to stop postcrossing, and they were talking about for weeks, that will make a huge difference.
My estimate is 26 May 2023 at midday (12:00 UTC).
My simplistic maths actually says a little earlier, but I’ve been early on the last two milestones so I have added on an arbitrary day.
So, we already have 12 predictions (bets).
Our predictions (bets) are indicated by diamonds on the horizontal axis at the bottom of the chart. One prediction did not get into the frame, as it is very far away.
The spread is quite large. There is no visible shot grouping. But it’s good. This is a sign that predictions are made with a great deal of independence.
The pink curve is a probability density curve based on our predictions. As you can see, it is extremely flat due to the high spread.
The blue curve is the probability density curve that I calculated as the possible spread of the actual Moment of Truth.
It is noteworthy that the peaks of both curves approximately coincide.
Average (Mean) = June 01 Thu 00:51
This is the arithmetic mean of all predictions. Sum all the values and divide by their number.
Median = June 02 Fri 16:19
This value is obtained by discarding the largest and smallest, again discarding the largest and smallest. Until one value remains. If there are two left, then take the arithmetic mean.
Mode = June 02 Fri 17:07
This is exactly the peak of the pink curve. It is calculated using a special mathematical formula.
I recommend that those whose prediction deviates too far from these averages check it please and recalculate again to refine the bet. Just like an idea
PS I accepted @sepatuholig’s prediction as June 10, 10:11 (UTC)
Please correct me if I’m wrong.
