5600 left 
1 Like
Note: the server will be down today from 11:11 until 19:19. Registrations can be done again after this break. This disruption wonāt stop us from reaching the 67th million today, but it will delay the magic registration, which will happen around 8:22 pm. justkidding
4,409 to go
today, 25.05.2022
20:22 UTC
PA to IN
4 Likes
Everything goes according to plan.
The red dot is the current value and it lies almost perfectly on the forecast curve.
So my last prediction still stands.
4,290 postcards left to go and about 6 hours 45 min.
PS And I already know to whom I will send a card with a Magic Mandala that grants a wish
But letās wait for the end of this countdown
Ooh! You evil person! 
Had me fooled 
2 Likes
Ooooooooh, mail will be delivered before that time, so I could be registeringā¦will I receive a card today or not?!
2 Likes
Officially, you shouldnāt be due any cards - but of course with long traveling cards and the demand-for-adresses-leads-to-receiving-more, thereās a chance for you. Good luck.
I have (calculated very hopefully/generously) seven cards traveling that could arrive/be registered today - so thereās a 1:500* chance for me.
3,716 to go
*I know that my chance does not change to 1:10 or 1:1 later in the process, still donāt know why. Any thoughts, @greenskull ? Is it because the potential registration is not guaranteed? Any cool formula out there? Or is the chance a fixed number, always everytime potential_arrivals:overall_daily_registrations
2 Likes
I believe that here it is necessary to evaluate the probability of getting bingo necessarily in relation to the time interval.
(1)
We roughly know when the Moment of Truth will come.
We take an interval, say 6 hours, around this Moment of Truth and count how many of all postcards will be registered at that time.
We count how many of your sent postcards fall into this interval.
If the probability of each of your postcards falling into this interval was 1.0 (100%), then it would be enough to divide the number of your postcards by the total number of all postcards in the interval.
This would be the answer what is the probability of getting bingo in the interval of 6 hours.
But it all is not so easy
Read more...
(2)
Therefore, for each of your postcards, we evaluate the probabilities of falling into this interval. How to do this is a topic for a separate discussion. But for simplicity, you can do it rough by eye, choosing for each postcard one of several values āāfor simplicity (0.0 or 0.25 or 0.5 or 0.75 or 1.0). Since the exact calculation is a rather difficult task.
And then sum the quotients of these probabilities for all your cards in this interval.
Letās assume that two of your postcards fall into the interval. The first one falls there with a probability of 1.0 (100%), the other with a probability of 0.5 (50%). And the total number of all postcards falling into the 6 hours interval, letās say 2000 postcards.
Then you need to calculate:
(1.0/2000) + (0.5/2000) = desired chance to get bingo in the 6 hours time interval
And now the most interesting.
Next, you need to estimate the limit to which this value tends when narrowing the interval to zero width relative to the Moment of Truth
And of course, the probabilities of falling into a narrowing interval for each of your postcards will begin to change. They directly depend on its width.
But it is possible to act more simply and evaluate this limit, narrowing the interval only to the width of the interval in which the Moment of Truth walks back and forth and does not reliably go beyond its boundaries.
PS If you look at my graph, the light blue tube is the interval in which the actual value of the number of registered postcards walks with a probability close to 100% and does not go beyond its boundaries. The width of this tube is about 2 hours.
The farther from the Moment of Truth - the wider it is, the closer - the narrower it is.
This tube is called the confidence interval.
And in order to evaluate the probability of getting bingo, it is enough to use an interval with a width in which the fact of the value walks with a probability close to 100%.
1 Like
less than 3000 postcards to go!
1 Like
Around 1700 to go 
2 Likes
889 to go!
2 Likes
689 to go
less than an hour, probably a European new home
2 Likes
600
1 Like
This will happen in exactly 1 hour.
So 10 cards per minute 
1 Like
5 minutes before the Moment of Truth, there will be a small delay. And then there will be a small rocket.
Many people are watching the passage of the level. And Iām sure some keep registration until the cherished moment. And then they start scribbling registrations
300
- Each 100 is passing quickly. The delay should come soon if itās going to.
1 Like
